SENARYO PLANLAMA: LİTERATÜR TARAMASI

Günümüzde çok sık rastlanılan ancak terminolojik olarak disiplinler arasında farklılık gösteren “senaryo” kavramı Soğuk Savaş sonrası sosyal bilimlerin de ilgi alanına girmiştir. Özellikle 1980 sonrası çok uluslu şirketlerin artan sayısı rekabette her alanda üstünlüğü şirketler için zorunluluk haline getirmiştir. Geleceğin belirsizliği ve bu belirsizliklerin beraberinde getirebileceği risklerin önceden görülebilmesi, gün geçtikçe rekabet avantajı haline dönüşmüştür. Elbette şirketlerle birlikte devletler de uluslar üstü güç olma savaşında senaryolara geçmişten daha çok ihtiyaç duyar hale gelmiştir. Araştırmacıların çalışmalarında senaryo kavramına eskisinden daha fazla yer ayırır hale gelmesi konu ile ilgili literatürün taranması ve temel tanımların öğrenilmesini de ihtiyaç haline getirmiştir. Bu çalışma da bahsi geçen konu ile ilgili yapılmış en geniş tarama makalesinin Türkçe’ye kazandırılmasını amaçlayarak İngilizce’den tercüme edilmiştir.

A REVIEW OF SCENARIO PLANNING LITERATURE

The concept of "scenario", which is very common today, but whose terminology differs between disciplines, has also become a topic of interest for social sciences researchs after Cold War. The increasing number of multinational corporations, especially after 1980, has made each field superior of competition a necessity for companies. The uncertainty of the future and the anticipation of the risks that these uncertainties may bring into the day has become a competitive advantage. It’s for sure that, with the corporations, the states have become more and more need for scriptwriters in the struggle to become supranational forces. The fact that researchers have more room for the concept of scenarios in their work has made it necessary to screen the literature and learn the basic definitions. Fort his reason this study has been translated from English with the aim of bringing the widest screening method made in this subject to Turkish.

___

Wack, P. (1985c). Scenarios: The Gentle Art of Reperceiving. Unpublished manuscript, Harvard Business School.
Wack, P. (1985b). "Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead," Harvard Business Review, 63 (5): 73-89.
Wack, P. (1985a). "Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids," Harvard Business Review, 63 (6): 139-150.
Von Bertalanffy, L. (1969). General System Theory: Foundations, Development, Applications. New York: George Braziller, Inc.
Van der Merwe, L. (1994). "Bringing Diverse People to Common Purpose," In P. M. Senge, A. Kleiller, C. Roberts, R. B. Ross, and B. J.Smith, (Eds.), The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook: Strategies and Tools for Building a Learning Organization. New York: Doubleday.
Van der Heijden, K. (2000). "Scenarios and Forecasting: Two Perspectives," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65, 31-36.
Van der Heijden, K. (1997). Scenarios, Strategies and the Strategy Process. The Netherlands: Nijenrode University Press.
Van der Heijden, K. (1997). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. New York:John Wiley.
Swanson, R. A., S.A. Lynham, W. Ruona and J. Provo. (1998)."Human Resource Development's Role Supporting and Shaping Strategic Organizational Planning," in P,, K. Kuchinke (ed), Proceedings of the Academy of Human Resource Development Conference, pp. 589-594. Baton Rouge, LA: Academy of Human Resource Development.
Simpson, D. G. (1992). "Key Lessons for Adopting Scenario Planning in Diversified Companies," Planning Review, 20, (3), 11-18.
Shoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). "Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking," Sloan Management Review, 37 (2), 25-40.
Shoemaker, P.J. H. (1993). "Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation," Strategic Management Journal, 14, 193-213.
Shoemaker, P. J. H. (1992). "How to Link Strategic Vision to Core Capabilities," Sloan Management Review, Fall 1992, 67-80.
Senge, P. M., A. Kleiner, C. Roberts, R.B. Ross, and B.J. Smith. (1994). The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook: Strategies and Tools for Building a Learning Organization. New York: Doubleday.
Sense, P., A. Kleiner, C. Roberts, R. B. Ross, G. Roth, and B. Smith. (1991). The Dance of Change: The Challenges to Sustaining Momentum in Learning Organizations. New York: Doubleday.
Senge, P. (1990). The Fifth Discipline. New York: Doubleday.
Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View. New York: Doubleday.
Schnaars, S. P. (1989). Megamistakes: Forcasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change. New York: Free Press.
Rummier, G. A. and A.P. Brache. (1995). Improving Performance: How to Manage the White Space on the Organization Chart. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, Inc.
Rumlet, R. P. (1991). "How Much Does Industry Matter?" Strategic Management Journal, 12 (3): 167-185.
Roubelat, F. (2000). "Scenario Planning as a Networking Process," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65, 99-112.
Ringland, G. (1998). Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future. New York: John Wiley.
Porter, M. E. (1998). Competitive Advantage. New York: Free Press.
Porter, M. E. (1980). Competitive Strategy. New York: Free Press.
Mintzberg, H. (1994). The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning. London: Prentice-Hall.
Micklethwait, J. and A. Woolridge. (1997). The Witch Doctors: What the Management Gurus are Saying, Why it Matters, and How to Make Sense of it. New York: Times Books.
Miller, R. F., S. A. Lynham, J. Provo, and J.M. St. Claire. (1997)."Examination of the Use of Scenarios as Learning and Decision-Making Tools for Human Resource Development," in E. F. Bolton III (ed.) Academy of Human Resource Development 1997 Conference Proceedings. Atlanta, GA: Academy of Human Resource Development, p. 80-86.
Kleiner, A. (1996). The Age of Heretics. New York: Doubleday.
Kleiner, A. (1999). "Scenario Practice," Whole Earth Quarterly, 11 (3): 167-191.
Kahane, A. (1992). "The Mont Fleur Scenarios: What Will South Africa be Like in the Year 2002?" Supplement to Weekly Mail and The Guardian Weekly. Bellville, South Africa.
Kahn, H. and A.J. Wiener. (1967). "The Next Thirty-Three Years: A Frame-work for Speculation," Daedalus, 96 (3): 705-732.
Buss, W. R. and E.J. Honton. (1987). "Scenario Planning: What Style Should You Use?" Long Range Planning, 20, (4), 21-29.
Godet, M. (2000). "The Art of Scenarios and Strategic Planning: Tools and Pitfalls," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65, 3-22.
Godet, M. and F. Roubelat. (1996). "Creating the Future: The Use and Misuse of Scenarios," Long Range Planning, 29, (2), 164-171.
Godet, M. (1987). Scenarios and Strategic Management: Prospective et Plantation Strategique. Translated by D. Green and A. Rodney. London: Butterworths.
Georgantzas, N. C. and W. Acar. (1995). Scenario-Driven Planning: Learning to Manage Strategic Uncertainty. Westport: Quorum.
Galer, G. and K. Van der Heijden. (1992). "The Learning Orgam'zation: How Planners Create Organizational Learning," Marketing Intelligence and Planning, 10 (6): 5-12.
Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge: MIT Press.
De Gens, A. (1988). "Planning as Learning," Harvard Business Review, 66 (2). 70-74.
De Gens, A. (1997). The Living Company. Boston:Harvard University Press.
Brauers,J. L. and M. Weber. (1988). "A New Method of Scenario Analysis for Strategic Planning," Journal of Forecasting, 7 (1): 31-47.
Cummings, T. G. and C. G. Worley. (2001). Organization Development and Change. (6th ed.) Cincinnati: South-Western College Publishing.
Chandler, J. and P. Cockle. (1982). Techniques of Scenario Planning. London: McGrawHill.
Amara, R. and A.J. Lipinski. (1983). Business Planning for An Uncertain Future: Scenarios and Strategies. New York: Pergamon.
Ackoff, R. L. (1978). Creating the Corporate Future. New York: Wiley.
Ackoff, R. L. (1978). The Art of Problem Solving. New York: Wiley.
Ackoff, R. L. (1970). A Concept of Corporate Planning. New York: Wiley.