Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde “Dalgalanma Korkusu” Baskısı Altında Dalgalanmadan Korkusuz Dalgalanmaya Geçiş

1990’lar ve 2000’ler de yaşanan krizler sonrasında ana görüş esnek döviz kurlarının serbest sermayehareketliliği altında yaşanan yurtiçi ve yurtdışı şokları emme konusunda başarılı olduğu ve enflasyonhedeflemesi stratejisinin de gelişmekte olan ülkelerde merkez bankasına Taylor kuralında olduğu gibibağımsız para politikası izleme imkanı sağladığıdır. Yaşanan bu krizlerden sağlanan bir başka çıkarım isekatı ve / veya kısmen daha katı olarak adlandırılan ara rejimlerin finansal krizlere açık olduğudur. Fakatbu geleneksel diyebileceğimiz görüş dünya ekonomisinde artan finansal entegrasyon ile birlikte yoğuneleştiri altındadır. Geleneksel yaklaşıma yapılan eleştiriler üç başlık altında toplanmaktır. Bu eleştirilerdenilki, dünya ekonomisinde daha esnek kur rejimlerine doğru bir kayış söz konusu değildir. Tam tersinekrizlerin ana nedeni olarak görülen ara rejimlere doğru bir kayış söz konusudur. İkincisi ise açıkekonominin paradigması olarak kabul edilen imkansız üçleme hipotezinin gelişmekte olan ülkelerde birikileme neden olduğudur. Üçüncü eleştiri ise döviz kuruna yapılan müdahalelerin etkinliği üzerinedir. Bueleştirilerden çıkan sonuç gelişmekte olan ülkelerin korkusuz bir biçimde dalgalanabilmesi dalgalı kurrejimine yatırım yapmalarının gerektiğidir. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin “korkusuz” bir biçimdedalgalanması merkez bankalarına dışsal şoklara direnç konusunda yardımcı olduğu bibi enflasyonhedefine ulaşma şansını arttırarak para politikasının kredibilitesine önemli katkı vermektedir.Çalışmamızın amacı gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yoğun bir biçimde hissedilen dalgalanma korkusunuüstesinden nasıl gelinebileceğinin ülke örneklerinden hareketle ortaya konulmasıdır. Gelişmekte olan ülkeörneklerine baktığımızda

Transition from Managed Floating to Fearless Floating Under the Fear of Floating in Emerging Market Countries

In the wake of 1990s and 2000s, the main view was that flexible exchange rates were successful in absorbing domestic and international shocks under free capital mobility, and the inflation targeting strategy was directed to the central bank in developing countries to follow a counter-cyclical independent monetary policy. it provides the opportunity. Another implication from these crises is that intermediate regimes, which are called hard pegs or soft pegs, are vulnerable to financial crises. However, this traditional view is under intense criticism with the increasing financial integration in the world economy. Criticisms made to the traditional approach are grouped under three headings. The first of these criticisms is that there is no shift towards more flexible exchange rate regimes in the world economy. The second is that the impossible trinity hypothesis, accepted as the paradigm of the open economy, causes a dilemma in developing countries. The third criticism is on the effectiveness of exchange rate interventions. The conclusion from these criticisms is that developing countries should “invest” in the floating exchange rate regime so that they can fluctuate fearlessly.

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