Long-Term Natural Gas Contracts and Economic Performance: A Historical Decomposition Analysis for Turkey

In this study, it was intended to capture a better relationship between the determined macroeconomicvariables and natural gas prices via the long-term natural gas contracts of Turkey, due to the upcomingexpiry dates for some of the long-term natural gas contracts that Turkey signed before. Especially, the longterm contracts between Turkey and Russia are taken as a basis and examined because Turkey mostlyimports natural gas as well as crude oil and products from Russia, and the nearest long-term natural gascontract expiry date is the one with them. The main underlying cause of such a study is based on Turkey’sneed of ensuring energy supply security for its ever-growing population and economy as well as accessingclean and cheaper energy sources like natural gas, as a net energy importer country via alternative longterm natural gas contracts more suitable for both sides. Exclusively with the help of the HistoricalDecomposition Method by benefitting the Near-VAR Model, the missing part about the quantitativeexamination of long-term natural gas contracts and economic performance of Turkey was attempted to beexecuted by applying econometric techniques explained in the methodology part of the paper. Theseeconometric techniques implemented in three different scenarios and, besides, five different natural gasprice formulas are offered for Turkey’s long-term natural gas contracts to be discussed in detail. Thescenarios are based on concerning different energy commodities and different regional benchmarks byconsidering the effects on many macroeconomic variables or vice versa. Consequently, as an empiricalfinding, it has been obtained that a better performance can be demonstrated in terms of industrialproduction with one of the formulas produced as an alternative. In a nutshell, this paper is constructedupon five parts beyond the introduction and organized as follows: Natural gas markets, pricing, andcontracts; Turkey’s natural gas market and long-term natural gas contracts; literature review;methodology and empirical findings; conclusion and recommendations.

Uzun Vadeli Doğalgaz Sözleşmeleri ve Ekonomik Performans: Türkiye için Bir Tarihsel Ayrıştırma Analizi

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'nin daha önce imzaladığı uzun vadeli doğalgaz sözleşmelerinden bazılarının yakın zamanda vadelerinin dolacak olması nedeniyle, belirlenen makroekonomik değişkenler ile doğalgaz fiyatları arasında daha iyi bir ilişki yakalanması amaçlanmıştır. Türkiye’nin ham petrol ve petrol ürünleri ile doğal gaz ithalatını çoğunlukla Rusya'dan gerçekleştirmesi ve ayrıca en yakın uzun vadeli doğal gaz sözleşmesi bitiş tarihinin Rusya ile olması nedeniyle özellikle Türkiye ile Rusya arasındaki uzun vadeli sözleşmeler esas alınarak inceleme yapılmıştır. Böyle bir çalışmanın temel nedeni, Türkiye'nin sürekli artan nüfusu ve büyüyen ekonomisi için enerji arz güvenliğini sağlama ihtiyacının yanı sıra her iki taraf için daha uygun alternatif uzun vadeli doğalgaz sözleşmeleri ile net enerji ithalatçısı bir ülke olarak doğal gaz gibi temiz ve daha ucuz enerji kaynaklarına erişme ihtiyacına dayanmaktadır. Çalışmada, özellikle Near-VAR Modelinden faydalanılarak kullanılan Tarihsel Ayrıştırma Yöntemi ve makalenin metodoloji bölümünde açıklanan diğer ekonometrik teknikler uygulanarak Türkiye'nin uzun vadeli doğalgaz sözleşmelerinin kantitatif incelemesinde eksik olan kısımlar doldurulmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu ekonometrik teknikler üç farklı senaryo üzerinde uygulanmıştır ve ayrıca Türkiye’nin uzun vadeli doğalgaz sözleşmelerinin detaylı olarak tartışılması için beş farklı doğalgaz fiyat formülü sunulmuştur. Senaryolar, birçok makroekonomik değişken üzerindeki etkiler göz önünde bulundurularak farklı enerji emtialarına ve farklı bölgesel karşılaştırma ölçütlerine veya bunun tersine dayanmaktadır. Sonuçta ampirik bulgu olarak, alternatif olarak üretilen formüllerden birisi ile sanayi üretimi açısından daha iyi bir performans ortaya konabileceği elde edilmiştir. Özetle, bu makale girişin ötesinde beş bölüm üzerine inşa edilmiş ve şu sırayla düzenlenmiştir: Doğal gaz piyasaları, fiyatlandırması ve sözleşmeleri; Türkiye doğal gaz piyasası ve uzun vadeli doğal gaz sözleşmeleri; literatür taraması; metodoloji ve ampirik bulgular; sonuç ve öneriler.

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