Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Rejiminde Döviz Kuru Geçiş Etkisi: Taylor Hipotezi’nin Türkiye’de Geçerliliğinin Ekonometrik Analizi

Bretton Woods sonrası dönemde serbest döviz kuru rejimi uygulamalarının yaygınlaşmasıyla birlikte görülen yüksek enflasyon sorunu iktisatçıların döviz kuru dalgalanmalarına olan ilgisini artırmıştır. Özellikle enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimini uygulayan gelişmekte olan ülkelerde görülen döviz kuru dalgalanmaları karşısında ülkelerin verecekleri reaksiyonlar ve bu reaksiyonların yarattığı etkiler araştırmacılar tarafından sıkça incelenmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimi uygulamasının döviz kurlarının fiyatlara geçişi üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Döviz kuru geçişkenliğinin teorik çerçevesi üretici ve tüketici fiyatları ile sınırlandırılmıştır. Literatürde yer alan diğer çalışmalardan farklı olarak değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi için iki değişkenli VAR modelleri tercih edilmiştir. Veri seti enflasyon hedeflemesi rejiminin başlangıcı referans alınarak ikiye bölünmüştür. Analiz sonuçlarına göre Türkiye’de enflasyon hedeflemesi rejiminin uygulandığı ve enflasyonun kısmen kontrol altına alındığı yıllarda döviz kurunda meydana gelen değişimlerin fiyatlar üzerindeki etkisinin azaldığı görülmüştür. Ayrıca döviz kurunda yaşanan dalgalanmaların tüketici fiyatlarına daha yüksek oranda geçiş yaptığı ve

Exchange Rate Pass-through in Inflation Targeting Regime: Econometric Analysis of the Validity of Taylor's Hypothesis in Turkey

In this study, the transition of fluctuations in exchange rates to producer and consumer prices in the years when the inflation targeting regime was implemented in Turkey was examined. The theoretical framework of exchange rate pass-through is limited by producer and consumer prices. Unlike other studies in the literature, bivariate VAR models were preferred to examine the relationship between variables. The beginning of the data set was determined with reference to the beginning of the inflation targeting regime. It has been observed that the effect of the changes in the exchange rate on prices decreased in the years when the inflation targeting regime was implemented and inflation was partially controlled in Turkey. Also, it was seen that the changes in the exchange rate made a sharper transition to the consumer prices and the effect of fluctuations in EURO on prices is higher than that of USD.

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