Hafsa MORCİ, Azharia ELBUSHRA, Abeer KİNAWY

Suudi Arabistan'da Dizel ve Elektrik Fiyat Reformlarının Tarımsal Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla Üzerindeki Etkisi

Bu çalışma, dizel ve elektrik enerji fiyat reformunun Suudi tarımsal Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYİH) üzerindeki etkisini değerlendirmeyi ve tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada, EViews yazılımı kullanılarak 2000-2018 dönemindeki zaman serisi verilerine dayanan üç aşamalı en küçük kareler yöntemi (3SLS) kullanılarak logaritmik formülde dört davranış denkleminden oluşan eşzamanlı denklem modeli (SEM) uygulanmıştır. Tahmini SEM, farklı senaryolar kullanılarak 2025 yılına kadar tahmin için kullanıldı. Artırılmış Dicky Fuller testinin sonuçları, uygulanan (3SLS) en küçük kareler yöntemi analiz edilen zaman serilerinin durağanlığını varsaydığı için gerekli olan değişkenlerin sabit farklılaştırıldığını göstermektedir. Tahmin edilen SEM'in sonuçları, elektrik miktarının ve su miktarının tarımsal GSYİH'yi etkileyen ana faktörler olduğunu ve elektrik için tarımsal talebin esnek olmadığını göstermiştir. Ayrıca, tarımsal hammadde ihracatında ve gıda işleme projelerinin sayısında% 100'lük bir artış, tarımsal gayri safi hasılada sırasıyla% 5,1 ve% 1,7 artışa yol açacaktır. Bu bağlamda çalışma, tarımsal hammadde ihraç etmek yerine gıda endüstrisinin teşvik edilmesini önermektedir. Tahmin modelleri, enerji fiyatı reform planının ikinci aşamaya kadar (senaryo 1) uygulanmasının, 2020-2025 tahmin döneminde brüt GSYİH'nın% 6,5'i oranında büyüme oranına yol açan en iyi senaryo olduğunu gösterdi. Tam enerji fiyatı reform planı (senaryo 2), tarımsal GSYİH'da sürekli bir düşüşe yol açacaktır. Buna ek olarak, elektriğin (senaryo 3) ve dizelin (senaryo 4) tam fiyat serbestleştirilmesi, tarımsal GSYİH'yi sırasıyla% 6,6 ve% 5,7 oranında azaltacaktır. Çalışma, enerji fiyatı reformunun birinci aşama ile sınırlı olmasını önermektedir. Ayrıca, planın uygulanmasının devam etmesi halinde, ortak uygulamalarının tarımsal GSYİH üzerindeki olumsuz etkisini azaltmak için elektrik fiyat reformunun ve dizelin ayrı ayrı uygulanmasını tavsiye etmektedir.

Impact of Diesel and Electricity Price Reforms on Agricultural Gross Domestic Product in Saudi Arabia

This study aimed to assess and forecast the effect of energy price reform of diesel and electricity onSaudi agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The study applied simultaneous equations model (SEM)consisting of four behavioral equations in the logarithmic formula, using the three stages least squared method(3SLS) based on time series data during the period 2000-2018, using EViews software. The estimated SEMwere used for forecasting until 2025 using different scenarios. The results of the augmented Dicky Fuller testshow that the variables are differenced stationary, that are needed because the applied (3SLS) least squaresmethod assumes the stationarity of the analyzed time series. The results of the estimated SEM indicated that,the quantity of electricity and that of water are the main factors affecting agricultural GDP, and agriculturaldemand for electricity is inelastic. In addition, an increase of 100% in the number of food processing projectsand of the export of agricultural raw materials, would lead to an increase in the agricultural gross product by5.1% and 1.7% respectively. In that regards the study recommend encouragement of food industry rather thanexporting agricultural raw materials. The forecasting models indicated that implementation of the energy pricereform plan to agriculture up to phase two (scenario 1) is the best scenario leading to growth rate of 6.5% ofgross GDP during the forecasting period of 2020-2025. The full energy price reform plan (scenario 2) willlead to a continuous decrease in agricultural GDP. In addition full price liberalization of electricity (scenario3) and that of diesel (scenario 4) will decrease the agricultural GDP by 6.6% and 5.7% respectively. The studyrecommend that the energy price reform to be limited to phase one. Furthermore if the implementation of the plan will continue, it recommends separate application of electricity price reform and that of diesel to reducethe negative effect of their joint application on agricultural GDP.

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