Kriz Senaryoları Nedir? Türkiye-ABD’nin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi ve İletişim Odaklı Bir Kriz Senaryo Modeli Önerisi

Kriz evreni, bugün meydana gelen olayların karmaşıklığı ve iç içe geçmesi ile orantılı olarak kaotik bir yapıdadır. Kelebek etkisi artık bir teori değil, küreselleşen dünyanın karşılaştığı bir sorundur. Belirsizliğin yeni boyutları riskin kapsamını ve şiddetini etkilemiş, öngörülen ve gerçekleşen olaylar arasındaki uçurumun yeni modellerine olan ihtiyacı daha da belirgin hale getirmiştir. Kriz yönetimi, etkili iletişimin tüm yönlerini içeren ve kriz meydana gelmeden önce proaktif tedbirlerle geleceğe yönelik projeksiyonlar yapan, karar vermeyi ve davranışsal sürecini destekleyen bilişsel bir hazırlık sürecine dönüşmektedir. Kriz senaryoları, domino etkisi gibi birbirini tetikleyen krizlerle mücadelede dünyadaki en etkili, bilinen ve uygulanan yöntemdir. Devletlerin, kamu kurumlarının ve özel sektörün öngörülemeyen krizlere hazır olmasını, kelebek etkisini tahmin edebilmesini ve krizin kaçınılmaz olması durumunda çok az hasarla aşılmasını sağlayan tekrarlayan, teorik ve uygulamalı bir süreçtir. Literatürde, Türkiye merkezli kriz senaryolarını inceleyen akademik bir çalışmaya rastlanılmamıştır. Ayrıca, Türkiye'de bu bağlamda herhangi bir kamu veya özel sektör kuruluşu tarafından bilimsel olarak hazırlanan kriz senaryosuna da ulaşılamamıştır. Bu amaçla, önce kriz ve kriz senaryoları ile ilgili literatür aktarılmış ve kavramlar tanımlanmıştır. İkinci olarak, ABD ve Türkiye'deki Covid-19 salgını öncesi yayınlanan bazı kriz senaryoları karşılaştırmalı bir yaklaşımla ortaya konmuştur. Üçüncüsü, kriz senaryolarının içeriği ve nasıl hazırlanmaları gerektiği konusunda iletişim odaklı bir hazırlık modeli önerilmiştir. Son olarak kriz senaryoları, kriz iletişimi ve karar alma bağlamında geleceğe yönelik olasılıklar esas alınarak değerlendirilmekte ve öneriler sunulmaktadır.

What are the Crisis Scenarios? Turkey-USA Comparative Analysis and Communication Oriented Model Proposal for a Crisis Scenario

The universe of crisis is in chaotic structure in proportion to the complexity and intertwining of events occurring today. The butterfly effect is no longer a theory, but a problem of the globalizing world. New dimensions of uncertainty have affected the scope and severity of the risk, making the need for new models of the gap between predicted and realized events even more evident. Crisis management is evolving into a cognitive preparation process that involves all aspects of effective communication and makes future-oriented projections with proactive measures before a crisis occurs, supporting decision-making and behavioral process. Crisis scenarios are the most effective, known, and applied method in the world in dealing with crises that trigger each other, such as the domino effect. It is a repetitive, theoretical and practical process that enables states, public institutions, and the private sector to be prepared for unforeseen crises, to predict the butterfly effect, and to overcome the crisis with little damage if it is inevitable. There has not been an academic study examining crisis scenarios based in Turkey in the literature. Furthermore, the crisis scenario prepared scientifically by any public or private sector in Turkey has not been reached in this context. For this purpose, firstly the literature on crisis and crisis scenarios has been transferred and concepts have been defined. Secondly, some of the crisis scenarios published before the Covid-19 outbreak in the United States and Turkey have been put forward with a comparative approach. Thirdly, a communication-oriented readiness model has been proposed regarding the content of crisis scenarios and how they should be prepared. Finally, crisis scenarios are evaluated and recommendations are presented based on future possibilities in the context of crisis communication and decision making.

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