KIRGIZİSTAN’DA İŞÇİ GELİRLERİ İLE İKTİSADİ DALGALANMALAR ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ

Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin en önemli gelir kaynaklarından biri işçilerin gönderdikleri para transferleridir ve bu transferler ekonomik büyüme, döviz kurları, tüketim, yatırım ve fiyat istikrarı gibi çok sayıda makro değişkeni etkilemektedir. Kırgızistan yapılan transferler açısından ECA bölgesindeki en büyük altıncı ülkedir. Para transferleri Kırgızistan’ın en önemli gelir kaynaklarından biridir ve Kırgizistan’dan ülke dışına göç eden işçiler açısından en çok tercih edilen ülke Rusya’dır. Göç edenlerin büyük bir kısmı Rusya’da çalışmaktadır ve resmi kanallardan Kırgızistan’a aktarılan para transferlerinin yaklaşık %90’ı bu ülkeden gönderilmektedir. Ayrıca, tarihsel açıdan bakıldıgında Kırgızistan’ın Rusya ile güçlü bağları bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Rusya’dan Kırgızistan’a gönderilen para transferleri ile Kırgızistan ve Rusya’daki iktisadi dalgalanmalar arasındaki ilişkiler Hodrick-Prescott filtresi, çapraz korelasyon, Granger nedensellik testi ve varyans ayrıştırma yöntemleri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular hem Rusya’dan Kırgızistan’a yapılan para transferlerinin hem de Kırgızistan’ın GSYİH’sının Rusya’daki iktisadi dalgalanmalardan etkilendiğini göstermektedir. Gerek Rusya’dan Kırgızistan’a gonderilen para transferlerinin, gerekse Kırgızistan ekonomisindeki çıktının Rusya’da yaşanan iktisadi dalgalanmalar ile sıkı sıkıya baglı olduğu görülmektedir. Rusya’dan Kırgızistan’a gonderilen para transferleri ve Kırgızistan’ın çıktısı Rusya’nın çıktısı ile aynı yönde dalgalanmaktadır ve Rusya’nın çıktısından, Kırgızistan'a gönderilen para transferlerine ve Kırgızistan’ın çıktısına dogru işleyen tek yönlü bir nedensellik bulunmaktadır. Ayrıca, Rusya'dan Kırgızistan'a gönderilen para transferleri ile Kırgızistan’ın çıktısı aynı yönde dalgalanmaktadır.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BUSINESS CYCLES AND REMITTANCES IN KYRGYZSTAN

Remittances are one of the most important income sources for thedeveloping countries and they have effect on many macro variables suchas economic growth, exchange rates, consumption, investment and pricestability. Kyrgyzstan was the sixth largest remittance recipient in the ECAregion in 2016. Remittances become an important source of foreignexchange for Kyrgyzstan and Russia is the most popular destination formigrant workers from Kyrgyzstan. The majority of labor migrants areemployed in Russia, and about 90% of remittances sent to Kyrgyzstanthrough official channels are transferred from this country. Also,Kyrgyzstan has had historically strong ties with Russia. The aim of thisstudy is to examine the relationship between remittances from Russia toKyrgyzstan and business cycles of Kyrgyzstan and Russia. Relationshipis analyzed employing Hodrick-Prescott filters, cross-correlation, Grangercausality and variance decomposition methods. Empirical results showthat both the remittances and the GDP of Kyrgyzstan are affected by theRussian business cycles. Fluctuations in remittance flows and the outputof Kyrgyzstan are strongly connected with the Russia business cycles.Remittances and the output of Kyrgyzstan are pro-cyclical with theoutput of Russia and there is a unidirectional causality from the outputof Russia to remittances and the output of Kyrgyzstan. Also, remittancesare pro-cyclical with the output of Kyrgyzstan.

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