Koronavirüs Salgının Rekabetçi Büyük Güçler Arasındaki İlişkilere Etkisi

Bu makale; Covid-19 salgınına karşı küresel seviyede etkili güçlerin neden ortak mücadele veremediklerini ve bu durumun sistem açısından ne anlama gelebileceğini analiz ederken, aşının bulunması ve dağıtımıyla ilgili meseleleri değerlendirme dışı bıraktı. Realpolitik kurallara göre dış politikanın uyarlanmasıyla, sadece ulusal çıkarlara odaklanmak arasında önemli çelişkilerin ortaya çıktığı şartlarda Covid-19 salgının patlak vermesinin siyasal sonuçları ortaya konuldu. Bu bağlamda Covid-19 salgının, küresel seviyedeki istikrarsız güç dengesi sisteminde ortaya çıkan değişimlerin anlaşılmasına kolaylık sağlayabildiği görülmektedir. Başlangıçta, ortaya çıkan hastalık hususunda Çin yönetimi sessiz kalarak, salgının bütün dünyaya yayılmasına şahit olundu. 2020’nin başından itibaren Çin’den bütün dünyaya yayılan Covid-19 salgını bütün ülkeleri nasıl davranacakları ve nasıl faaliyet halinde olacakları konusunda farklı ve yaratıcı düşünmeye zorladı. Çağdaş devlet sisteminin günümüz çok kutuplu ikliminde koronavirüs salgınından kaynaklı sorunlarla yüzleşmesi ve onları anlama/çözme mücadelesi büyük güçler arasında -ABD, Avrupa Birliği ve Çin arasında- şiddetli rekabetle ve jeopolitik düzeyde gerilimin yükselmesiyle kendini göstermektedir. ABD-Çin gerilimi arttıkça, Avrupa Birliği daha bağımsız bir karakter sergileyebilmektedir. Büyük güçler arasındaki rekabet ve rekabetin yol açtığı politik ve diplomatik çatışmalar yakın gelecekte bütün insanlığı yakından ilgilendiren önemli bir sorun olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır -Koronavirüs salgınına bağlı olarak büyük güç ilişkileri denkleminde Rusya’nın oynadığı rol önemsiz olduğundan, bu çalışma kapsamında Rus yönetimine ait siyasi tutum önemli bir değişken olarak ele alınmadı. Üç büyük güç (ABD, AB, Çin) arasındaki çok yönlü ve karmaşık ilişkiler ağı Dünya Sağlık Örgütü’yle (DSÖ) bağlantılı olarak ortaya konuldu. Özelde DSÖ’nün, genelde is Birleşmiş Milletler’in zayıfladığı koşullarda, büyük güçler arasında küresel seviyede etkili bir güç denge sistemi hissedilmeye başlandı. ABD’nin ölümcül salgına karşı mücadelede küresel liderliği sergilemekten kaçınmasına bağlı olarak, saygınlığı ve oynadığı uluslararası önderliğin nasıl ağır bir darbe aldığı ve sonuçlarının ne olabileceği değerlendirildi. Covid-19 salgınına karşı küresel seviyede yürütülen mücadeleye önderlik yapmaktan uzak duran ABD yönetiminin tavrına bağlı olarak mevcut sürecin kendisi uzun dönemli bir dünya bunalımına işaret etmekteydi. 3 Kasım 2020’de ABD’de yapılan başkanlık seçimlerinde Donald Trump’ın kaybetmesi ve Demokratların adayı Joe Biden’ın kazanması AB’li temsilcileri sevindirdi. Diğer taraftan, 27 üye devletten meydana gelen Avrupa Birliği; Çin ile ABD arasında yaşanmakta olan jeopolitik mesafenin derinleşmesini engellemeye çalışırken, güç dengesinde gittikçe bağımsız bir davranışı ortaya koyabilmesi, yeni ABD yönetimiyle stratejik seviyede bazı sorunları yaşayabileceğine işaret etti. ABD yönetimiyle Çin arasında ilişkiler gerilirken, AB’nin Çin’le ekonomik işbirliği ve ticari bağlar üzerinden ilişkilerini geliştirmesinden ötürü, ABD’nin uluslararası gerilimi tırmandırmasına şimdilik sınırlar koyabilme kapasitesini sergileyebilmektedir. Bu sebeple rekabetçi büyük güç ilişkilerine özgü güç dengesine, geçici de olsa, istikrar kazandırabilmektedir. Ayrıca, Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri küresel rakiplerine karşı tutarsız ve çelişkili siyasi davranışlar sergilese bile, Çin ve ABD ile ilişkilerinde yapıcı bir rol oynamaya zorlanmaktadır. Çok kutuplu sisteme özgü dinamikler yavaş yavaş açığa çıkarken, koronavirüs salgının vahşi şekilde çok kutuplu sistemin olumsuzluklarını sergilemeye başlamasına bağlı olarak orta ve küçük ölçekli devletleri kendi gerçek ekonomik ve jeopolitik dinamikleriyle yüzleşmeye, rekabetçi büyük güçlere dönük beklentilerini köklü şekilde gözden geçirmeye ve sorgulamaya zorlamaktadır.

The Impact of Coronavirus Pandemic Upon the Relations Among Great Powers

Across the world, the pandemic of Covid-19 has resulted in a devastating manner. All the countries have struggled to save their economies and have had to tackle successive waves of this disease. This article uses the pandemic as an opportunity to understand the behaviours of each major power with respect to one another. Then the article has reviewed the complex relationships among competitive major powers across (United States of America (the US), European Union (EU) and China through the pandemic of Covid-19 in the context of the multipolar environment. The scale of the challenge the contemporary state system has faced in the current climate has been exposed with respect to the challenging struggle against the coronavirus disease among competitive great powers -the role Russia has played as a great power was negligible, and therefore she is excluded from this analysis. Three major powers’ encounters are revealed in partnership with the United Nations (UN) and particularly with the World Health Organization (WHO). The US administration to a great extent misjudged the risk of Covid-19 and refused to take serious measures in the face of the events happening in China and European continent. The US has paid heavy prices whilst the fatal and drastic effects of the pandemic over her population have reduced her leadership on global level; at global level, the emergence of a new unstable balance of power system that seems to be pointing to a longterm world crisis. The competition and the subsequent political and diplomatic conflicts between competitive major powers could be expected to be a challenge soon. Europe adopting a tolerant attitude toward China’s rise lately seems to be enforced to bridge the geopolitical gap between China and the US through economic cooperation and trade networks. As the European Union was becoming more assertive and independent, the US has imposed various restrictions on Chinese diplomats and journalists some of whom have even been expelled from the US. However, despite the constrained ties between China and the US, there seems a sort of resilience resulting in European Union’s encounter with China as well as with the US. The role the EU as a growing global power has played between China and the US has proven particularly rather constructive than destructive even though her behaviour toward her rivals has displayed inconsistent and conflicting political expectations in its ultimate form. With the new president of the US, Joe Biden, who won the elections on the third of November 2020, EU now expects the transatlantic tone to be shifting from one of hostility to one of mutual respect. After the Trump years, many European decision-makers hope to see the Biden presidency as a significant opportunity not just to renew and redefine the transatlantic alliance. However, contrary to what was expected to happen in a world struggling to cope with Covid-19 pandemic and potential environmental catastrophe, it is still unclear whether the members of the EU would seize the chance to remake the relationship. In addition to the complicated issues among the major powers, to learn more about the nature of multi-polar system during the pandemic, this study seeks to reflect through successive events, not independently of the coronavirus disease, on the particularly specific relationships among the major powers. In addition, the emergence of the multi-polar world gradually unfolds its dynamics, small or mid-scale states would have to confront their actual dynamics and question their expectation of competitive major powers as the pandemic has cruelly began manifesting the downsides of the multi-polar world. Infectious diseases have failed to bind the globally major nations together before the multipolar environment that has been driving nations apart. In that respect, Covid-19 has held up a mirror to global weaknesses.

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