Türkiye ekonomisi için büyüme beklentisi kendi kendini besleyen bir süreç mi? Neo-Wicksellyen bir bakış açısı

Finansal piyasaların egemen olduğu ekonomilerde, faiz oranlarındaki değişim bir risk unsuru yaratarak fayda fonksiyonu çerçevesinde toplam talebi etkilemektedir. Bu ise Neo-Wicksellyen analiz açısından “toplam talep beklentisinin belirleyicisi sadece finansal piyasalardaki risk mi yoksa toplam talep beklentileri kendi kendini besleyen bir denge mi yaratıyor” tartışmasını gün- deme getirmektedir. Bu çalışma Neo-Wicksellyen analiz çerçevesinde bu soruya Türkiye açısından cevap vermeyi hedeflemiştir. Çalışma sonucu karar alıcı iktisadi birimlerin büyüme beklentisini kısa vadede finansal piyasaların, döviz kurunun ve gerçekleşen büyümenin etkilediğini, uzun vad- ede ise büyüme beklentisini etkileyen tek değişkenin gerçekleşen büyüme olduğunu ortaya koy- maktadır. Diğer bir ifade ile iktisadi birimlerin büyüme beklentisini etkileyen temel değişken finansal piyasalar değil, kendi geçmiş deneyimleridir.

Is the growth expectation a self-fulfilling process for Turkey? from the point of Neo-Wicksellian’s view

The economies dominated by the financial markets, affect the total demand within the framework of the utility function by creating a risk due to change in interest rates. In that case, it brings the question of whether is it the risk in financial markets that affects total demand expectation or is that total demand expectation creates self-fulfilling equilibrium in terms of Neo-Wicksellian analysis. This study aims to answer this question within the framework of the Neo- Wicksellian analysis for Turkey. The results shows that financial markets; exchange rates and actual growth rate affects the growth expectation of decision makers in the short term, while actual growth rate is the only factor in affecting growth expectation in the long run. In other words, it is not the fi- nancial markets but it is the past experience that effects the growth expectations of economic agents.

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