Reel Döviz Kurunun Türkiye İmalat Sanayi İhracatı Üzerine Etkisi: Doğrusal Olmayan Panel ARDL Yaklaşımı

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye için imalat sanayi ihracat miktarı ile reel döviz kuru, reel döviz kuru oynaklığı ve yurt dışı talep arasındaki ilişki 2013.01- 2021.09 dönemi aylık verileri ile incelenmektedir. Modellerde yer alan değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığı Westerlund (2007) panel eşbütünleşme testi ile ortaya koyulmuş ve panel ARDL tahmin sonuçları yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve heterojenliği göz önünde bulunduran CS ARDL panel tahmincisi ile elde edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları, katsayı büyüklüklerinin ve anlamlılığının ülkelere göre farklılaştığını göstermektedir. Bu kapsamda ihracatı etkileyen faktörlerin tespitinde ve ihracatı artırmaya yönelik uygulanacak politikalara yön vermesi açısından ülke bazında sonuçların elde edilmesinin daha doğru olacağı değerlendirilmektedir.

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Turkish Manufacturing Industry Exports: Non-Linear Panel ARDL Approach

In this study, the relationship between the manufacturing industry exports and the real exchange rate, real exchange rate volatility and foreign demand were analyzed for Turkey for the 2013 January-2021 September period. The long-term relationship between the variables was analyzed by the Westerlund (2007) panel cointegration test, and the model estimation results were obtained with the CS-ARDL panel estimator, which takes into account cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity. The results show that the coefficient sizes and significance of the variables differ among the countries. Therefore, obtaining country-based results would be more accurate to determine the influencing factors in order to guide the implementation of policies for increasing exports.

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