ÇEKİM MODELİ UYGULAMASINDA SON GELİŞMELER VE YAPISAL / TEORİK ÇEKİM MODELİ

Uluslararası ticaret ekonomik büyümeye katkı yapan en önemli araçlardan biridir. Bu çerçevede ihracat veithalatın belirleyicisi olan faktörler ile bunların ne ölçüde etkili olduklarının tespit edilmesi ve ticaretpolitikalarının doğurduğu sonuçların ampirik olarak ölçülmesi, başta gelişme yolundaki ülkeler olmaküzere tüm ülkeler için büyük önem arz etmektedir. Uluslararası ticaretin modellenmesi ve analizikonusunda literatürde sıklıkla karşımıza çıkan çekim modeli bu amaçla kullanılmaktadır. Çekim modeli ilkolarak ortaya konulduğu günden bugüne sürekli geliştirilmiştir. Gerek teorik alt yapı gerekse tahminyöntemlerinde kaydedilen gelişmeler, modelin eksikliklerini gidermiş ve bu model kullanılarak yapılançalışmalarda elde edilen sonuçların daha kesin olmasını sağlamıştır. Bu nedenle çekim modeli kullanılarakyapılan çalışmalarda yansız ve kesin sonuçlar elde edilebilmesi için uluslararası literatürde yer alangelişmelerin incelenerek son tekniklerin uygulanması çok önemlidir. Buradan yola çıkılarak bu çalışmadaçekim modelinin tarihsel gelişimi ve teorisi, yapısal/teorik çekim modeli ve tahmin yöntemleri ileuygulamada karşılaşılan sorunlar ve çözüm önerilerine yer verilmiştir.

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN THE APPLICATION OF GRAVITY MODEL AND STRUCTURAL / THEORETICAL GRAVITY MODEL

International trade is one of the essential tools contributing to economic development. Therefore, to find out the determinants of exports and imports together with the extent to which they are effective, and measuring the consequences of trade policies are very important for all countries, especially developing ones. For this purpose, gravity model is extensively used to model and analyze international trade. The model has been continuously developed since it was first introduced. Both the theoretical infrastructure and the improvements in the estimation methods have eliminated the deficiencies of the model and made the results of the model more accurate. That’s why it is very important to follow the developments and to apply the latest techniques in international literature to obtain unbiased and accurate results. In this regard, developments about the gravity model and estimation by structural gravity will be examined in this study together with problems encountered and suggestions for solutions.

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