POLİTİK BELİRSİZLİKLER VE FİNANSAL PERFORMANS: BIST ÖRNEĞİ

Bu çalışmanın amacı politik belirsizliğin firmaların finansal performanslarına etkisini incelemektir. Bu amaçla çalışma, 2008-2013 dönemine ilişkin olarak; Borsa İstanbul'da (BIST) sanayi sektöründe faaliyet gösteren 147 firmayı kapsamaktadır. Politik belirsizlik ile finansal performans arasında ilişki panel veri analizi kullanılarak ilgili dönemdeki çeyrek verilerle analiz edilmektedir. Analiz sonucunda politik belirsizlik göstergesi olarak 29 Mart 2009 Genel Mahalli İdareler seçimini temsilen kullanılan değişken ve 12 Eylül 2010 Anayasa Değişikliği Referandumunu temsilen kullanılan değişken ile finansal performans göstergesi olarak kullanılan değişkenler arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilmezken, 12 Haziran 2011 Milletvekili Genel Seçimini temsilen kullanılan değişken ile finansal performans göstergesi olarak kullanılan değişkenler arasında istatistiksel olarak negatif ve anlamlı bir ilişkinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuç, "seçimler belirsizlik nedeniyle verimsiz sermaye tahsisi kanalıyla şirket performansını düşürebilir" önermesini doğrulamaktadır. Ayrıca bu sonucun politik belirsizliğin reel ekonomik etkileri üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahip olduğu yönünde güçlü bir mesaj verdiği söylenebilir. Öte yandan sonuçlar firma yöneticilerinin ve yatırımcıların 29 Mart 2009 Genel mahalli idareler seçimini ve 12 Eylül 2010 Anayasa değişikliği referandumunu bir belirsizlik olarak algılamadıkları ancak, 12 Haziran 2011 Milletvekili genel seçimini bir belirsizlik unsuru olarak algıladıkları şeklinde yorumlanabilir. Türkiye için politik belirsizliklerin firmaların finansal performansına etkisi üzerine firma bazında inceleyen bir çalışmaya rastlanmamıştır. Bu yönüyle çalışmanın literatürdeki bu boşluğu doldurması beklenmektedir

POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: AN EXAMPLE ON BIST

The purpose of the study is to examine the effects of political uncertainty on financial performance. For this purpose, the study consists of 147 firms operating in the industrial sector in Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST) for the period of 2008-2013. The relationship between political uncertainty and financial performance has been analyzed for the quarter data period by using panel data analysis. Analysis indicated that there is no statistically significant relationship between the 29th of March 2009 General election of local administrations variable and the 12th of September 2010 constitutional amendment referendum variable as an indicator for the political uncertainty and financial performance indicators, although there is a negative statistically significant relationship between the 12th of June 2011 Parliamentary general election variable as an indicator for the political uncertainty and financial performance indicators. This result confirms the proposition that" election uncertainty may reduce the company's performance due to the inefficient allocation of capital channel". This result also sends a strong message that political uncertainty has a significant impact on real economic outcomes. This founding implying that firm manager and investors not perceive the 29th of March 2009 General election of local administrations and the 12th of September 2010 constitutional amendment referendum as an uncertainty sources, but perceive the 12th of June 2011 Parliamentary general election as an uncertainty sources. The study examining the impact of political uncertainty on firms' financial performance on has not been found. This aspect of the study is expected to fill this gap in the literature

PDF

___

ALESINA, Alberto ve Dany Rodrik; (1994), “Distributive Politics and Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109 (2), pp.465–90.
BAKER, Scott R; Nicholas Bloom ve Steven J. Davis; (2013), Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. Chicago Booth Paper No. 13-02. http://www.policyuncertainty. com/media/BakerBloomDavis.pdf, (06.09.2014).
BALTAGI, Badi H; (2005), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Third Edition, England: .John Wiley & Sons LTD.
BIALKOWSKI, Jedrzej; Katrin Gottschalk ve Thomasz P. Wisniewski; (2008), “Stock Market Volatility Around National Elections”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 32, pp.1941–1953.
BIDDLE, Gary; Gilles Hilary ve Rodrigo Verdi; (2009), “How Does Financial Reporting Quality Relate To Investment Efficiency?” Journal of Accounting and Finance, 48(2-3), pp.112-131.
BLOOMBERG, S. Brock ve Gregory Hess; (2001), “Is The Political Business Cycle For Real?”, Journal of Public Economics, 87, pp.1091-1121.
BOUTCHKOVA, Maria; Hitesh Doshi; Art Durnev ve Alexsander Molchanov; (2012), “Precarious Politics and Return Volatility”, Review of Financial Studies, 25, pp.1111–1154.
BUSHMAN, Robert M. ve Abbıe J. Smıth; (2001), “Financial Accounting Information and Corporate Governance”, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 31, pp.237-333.
CHEN, Qi; Itay Goldstein ve Wei Jiang; (2007), “Price Informativeness and Investment Sensitivity to Stock Price”, Review of Financial Studies, 20, pp.619-650.
CLAESSENS, Stıjn; Kenıchı Ueda ve Yıshay Yafeh; (2010), Financial Frictions, Investment, and Institutions, Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10231.pdf, (13.04.2015).
DURNEV, Art (2012), The Real Effects of Political Uncertainty, Unpublished Working Paper. University of Iowa, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTFR/Resources/ ArtDurnev_Feb28_12.pdf, (13.04.2015).
DURNEV, Art; Randall Morck ve Bernard Yeung; (2004), “Value Enhancing Capital Budgeting and Firms Specific Stock Return Variation”, Journal of Finance, 59 (1), pp.65-105.
FRIJINS, Bart, Alizera Rad ve Ivan Indriawan; (2012), “Political Crises and the Stock Market Integration of Emerging Markets”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(3), pp.644–653.
GOODELL, John W. ve Sami Vahamaa; (2013), “US Presidential Elections and Implied Volatility: The Role of Political Uncertainty”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(3), pp.1108–1117.
GULEN, Huseyin ve Mihai Ion; (2013), Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment, Purdue University Mimeo, http://web.stanford.edu/group/SITE/SITE_2013/2013_ segment_2/2013_segment_2_papers/gulen.pdf, (13.04.2015).
HAUSMAN, Jerry A. ve William E. Taylor; (1981), “Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects”, Econometrica, 49(6), pp.1377–1398.
HAUSMAN, Jerry A.; (1978), “Specification Tests in Econometrics”, Econometrica, 46(6), pp. 1251- 1271.
IM K.S, M.H. Pesaran ve Y. Shin; (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115 (revise version of 1997’s work), pp.53-74.
JULIO, Brandon ve Youngsuk Yook; (2012). “Corporate Financial Policy under Political Uncertainty: International Evidence from National Elections”, Journal of Finance, 67(1), pp.45–84.
KNACK, Stephen ve Philip Keefer; (1995), “Institutions and Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures”, Economics and Politics, 7, pp.207-227.
LEVIN, A.; C. Lin, ve S. J. Chu; (2002), “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and FiniteSample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108, pp.1–24.
MEI, Jianping ve Limin Guo; (2004), “Political Uncertainty, Financial Crisis, and Market Volatility”, European Financial Management, 10, pp.639–57.
PASTOR, Lubos ve Pietro Veronesi; (2012). “Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices”, Journal of Finance, 67, pp.1219–1264.
PASTOR, Lubos ve Pietro Veronesi; (2013), “Political Uncertainty and Risk Premia”, Journal of Financial Economics, 110, pp.520-545.
WURGLER, Jeffrey; (2000), “Financial Markets and the Allocation of Capital”, Journal of Financial Economics, 58, pp.187-214.