FİNANSAL İSTİKRAR İLE CDS PRİMLERİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN BULANIK REGRESYON ANALİZİ İLE TESPİTİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yatırım yapılmadan önce yatırım yapılacak ülkenin ülke riskinin seyri analiz edilmelidir. Bir ülkeye ait ülke riskinin nasıl bir seyir içinde olduğunu görmenin en pratik yolu, CDS (Credit Default Swap) primlerine bakmaktır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, finansal istikrar göstergelerinin CDS primleri üzerindeki etkisi analiz etmek ve finansal istikrar ile CDS primleri arasındaki ilişkiyi ortaya koymaktır. Çalışmada finansal istikrar göstergeleri (Tablo 2) ile CDS primleri veri olarak kullanılmış ve veriler bulanık regresyon yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Analizler sonucunda; finansal istikrar ile CDS primleri arasında negatif bir ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiştir

DETERMINATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCIAL STABILITY AND CDS PREMIUMS BY USING FUZZY REGRESSION ANALYSIS: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Before making an investment, it should be analyzed the course of the sovereign risk of the country where investors would invest. The most practical way to view the course of the sovereign risk of a country is to check the CDS premiums. The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of the financial stability indicators on CDS premiums and is to determine of the relationship between financial stability and CDS premiums. In this study, indicators of the financial stability and CDS premiums were used as data and these data were analyzed by using fuzzy regression method. As a result of this analysis; it was found that there is a negative relationship between financial stability and CDS premiums

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