FİNANSAL İSTİKRARI SAĞLAMADA ULUSLARARASI REZERVLER ÖNEMLİ BİR ARAÇ MIDIR?

1990’larda yaşanan finansal krizlerin sonrasında ülkeler, uluslararası rezervleri finansal küreselleşmeden kaynaklanan oynaklığa karşı bir garanti mekanizması olarak görmeye başlamış ve bu nedenle uluslararası rezervlerin gayri safi yurt içi hasıladaki payını arttırmaya yönelmişlerdir. Bu çalışmada, yaşanan küresel krizlerin ardından edinilen tecrübeler doğrultusunda ulusal ekonomiler için makro ekonomik istikrarın önemli bir koşulu olan finansal istikrarın sağlanmasında rezervlerin etkili bir araç olup olmadığı Türkiye örneği için araştırılmaktadır. Bu kapsamda, Türkiye ekonomisinde 2005:Q4-2018:Q3 dönemi için finansal istikrar endeksi ile merkez bankası resmi rezervleri arasındaki ilişki ele alınmaktadır. Ampirik analiz periyodunun tamamında rezervlerin finansal istikrar üzerinde negatif etkisinin olduğu, her bir frekans alanında ise rezervlerin finansal istikrar üzerinde 2009:Q3-2012:Q2 arası pozitif, 2012:Q3-2016:Q4 arası negatif ve 2017:Q1-2018:Q3 arası tekrar pozitif etki yarattığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

ARE RESERVES AN IMPORTANT INSTRUMENT FOR PROVIDING FINANCIAL STABILITY?

After the financial crises of the 1990s, countries started to see international reserves as a guarantee mechanism against the volatility arising from financial globalization and therefore they started to increase the share of international reserves in gross domestic product. In the light of recent experiences of global crises, it is argued that reserves are an effective tool for ensuring financial stability, which is an important condition of macroeconomic stability for national economies. In this study, Turkey's economy in 2005:Q4-2018:Q3 period, the relationship between financial stability index and the central bank official reserves is investigated. In the whole of the empirical analysis period, the reserves have a negative effect on financial stability. On each frequency domain: reserves have positive effect between 2009:Q3-2012:Q2, negative effect between 2012:Q3-2016:Q4 and again positive effect between 2017:Q1-2018:Q3.

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