DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: OECD ÜLKELERİ İÇİN PANEL EŞİK DEĞER ANALİZİ

Bu çalışmada Hansen (1999) tarafından geliştirilen panel eşik değer analizi kullanılarak 27 OECD ülkesinde DYY ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin doğrusal olup olmadığının tespit edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, DYY ile ekonomik büyüme arasında doğrusal bir ilişki olmadığına ve DYY için tek eşik değer bulunduğuna dair güçlü kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Bu sonuç, DYY’nin ev sahibi ülkeye giriş düzeyine bağlı olarak ekonomik büyümeyi farklı şekillerde etkileyebileceğini göstermektedir. Analizde incelenen ülke grubu için DYY girişleri, 1,657 eşik değer seviyesinin üzerine çıktığında DYY’ler ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu etkilemekte bu seviyenin altında ise bu etki tersine dönmektedir. Bu yüzden ev sahibi ülkelerde politika yapıcılar, DYY çekmek için serbest ticaret bölgeleri, ticaret rejimi, vergi teşvikleri, beşeri sermaye tabanı, finansal piyasa düzenlemeleri, finansal sistem ve altyapı kalitesi gibi koşulları iyileştirmeyi amaçlamalıdırlar.

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: PANEL THRESHOLD ANALYSIS FOR THE OECD COUNTRIES

This paper aims at determining whether the relationship between FDI and economic growth is linear or not in OECD countries. By employing the panel threshold analysis proposed by Hansen (1999) we find evidence in favor of the nonlinear relationship between FDI and economic growth with a single threshold value for FDI. It is empirically shown that FDI positively impact economic growth when FDI inflows exceed the threshold value of 1,657, while the reversed effects are observed for FDI inflows less than 1,657. Therefore, policy makers in host countries should seek to improve conditions such as free trade zones, trade regimes, tax incentives, human capital base, financial market regulations, financial system and infrastructure quality to attract more FDI.

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