NET ENERJİ İTHALATÇISI ÜLKELERİN PETROL TÜKETİMİNİN GELİR VE FİYAT ESNEKLİKLERİ

Bu çalışma, 1990-2016 döneminde net enerji ithalatçısı 49 ülkenin petrol talebini panel veri modeli çerçevesinde analiz etmeyi amaçlamıştır. Ülkeler tükettikleri toplam enerjinin ne kadarını ithal ettiklerine göre yüksek ve düşük enerji ithalatçısı ülkeler olarak iki panel şeklinde ele alınmıştır. Yüksek enerji ithalatçısı 26 ülke (Panel A) ve düşük enerji ithalatçısı 23 ülke (Panel B) için petrol talebinin gelir ve fiyat esneklikleri hesaplanmıştır. Uzun dönem eşbütünleşme katsayıları tahmin sonuçları her iki panel geneli için de, petrol talebinin gelir esnekliğinin pozitif ve anlamlı; fiyat esnekliğinin ise yine her iki panel geneli için de negatif ve anlamlı olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca, her iki panel geneli için de fiyat esnekliği gelir esnekliğinden düşük bulunmuştur. Elde edilen bir diğer bulgu, yüksek enerji ithalatçısı ülke panelinin (Panel A); fiyat esnekliği (-0.03) düşük enerji ithalatçısı ülke paneline (Panel B) göre (-0.41) daha düşük hesaplanmıştır. Benzer şekilde yine yüksek enerji ithalatçısı ülke panelinin (Panel A) gelir esnekliği (1.18) düşük enerji ithalatçısı ülke paneline (Panel B) göre (1.04) daha yüksek hesaplanmıştır. Son olarak AMG (Arttırılmış Ortalama Grup Etkisi Tahmincisi) tahmincisi kullanılarak ülkelerin uzun dönem bireysel katsayıları hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilen bu sonuçlara dayanarak, bazı önemli politika sonuçları önerilmiştir.

Income and Price Elasticities of Oil Consumption of Net Energy Importing Countries

This study aims to analyze the oil demand of 49 countries which are net energy importers in the 1990-2016 period within the framework of panel data model. Countries are considered in two panels as high and low energy importing countries according to how much energy they import of their consumption. Income and price elasticities of oildemand for 26 high energy importing countries (Panel A) and 23 low energy importing countries (Panel B) were calculated. The results show that income elasticity of oil demand is positive and significant for both panels, and price elasticity is negative and significant again for both panels. In addition, price elasticity was lower than income elasticity for both panels. Another finding is that high energy importing country panel (Panel A) has lower price elasticity (-0.03) than low energy importing country panel (Panel B), (-0.41). Similarly, the income elasticity of the high-energy importing country panel (Panel A) (1.18) was calculated to be high than that of the low-energy importing country panel (Panel B), (1.04). Based on these results, some important policy implications have been proposed.

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