Gül EMEL GÖKAY, Cem KABAK, Mehlika SARAÇ

Stratejik karar almada iki aşamalı bir model: Senaryoların bilişsel haritalar ile etkinleştirilmesi ve Otomotiv Endüstrisinde bir uygulama

Son yıllarda karar alma süreçlerinde görülen yüksek derecedeki belirsizlik ve değişkenlik, farklı karar alma metotlarının birlikte kullanımını gerekli hale getirmiştir. Bu çalışmada, stratejik karar alma sürecini desteklemede senaryo analizi ve bilişsel haritaların birlikte kullanımı önerilmektedir. Bu modelleme ile senaryo analizi sonucunda elde edilen nitel senaryo metinlerinin bilişsel haritalar yoluyla yapılandırılması, yorumlanması ve karar alma sürecine girdi oluşturacak; hedefler, stratejiler, aksiyonlardan oluşan hiyerarşik yapının kurulması amaçlanmaktadır. Çalışma, Otomotiv Endüstrisinin geleceğine ilişkin bir uygulama ile desteklenmektedir.

A two-phase model for strategic decision making: Activation of scenarios with cognitive maps and an application on automotive industry

In recent years, using different decision making methods has become a requirement in decision making processes which have high uncertainty and variability. The aim of this study is to suggest an usage of scenario analysis and cognitive maps together in strategic decision making process, by this modeling, offer a structure for the qualitative scenario texts by cognitive maps and establish a hierarchical structure with targets, strategies, actions which will give input to the decision making process. Also this study is supported by an application on future of automotive industry.

PDF

___

Ackermann, F., Cropper, S., Cook, J. And Eden, C, (1992). Getting Started With Cognitive Mapping. 7th Or Conference, University Of Warwick, 13h-15th April, ss. 65-82
Axelrod, R. (1976). Structure of Decision: The Cognitive Maps of Political Elities. Priceton University Press.
Beck, P.W. (1982). Corporate Planning for an uncertain future. Long Range Planning.15(1): 12-21
Bood, R.P. and Postma, T.J.B.M. (1998). Scenario analysis as a strategic management tool. Research report SOM 9805, University of Groningen.
Carbonara, N. and Scozzi, B. (2006). Cognitive Maps to Analyze New Product Development Processes: A Case Study.Technovation, 26:1233-1243
Casey, P J.(2002). Remembering what we do, not what we view: The plasticity of everyday cognitive maps. Australian Journal of Psychology, 54(1):, 8- 16
Calori R, Johnson G, Sarnin P. (1994). CEOs’ Cognitive Maps and the Scope of the Organization. Strategic Management Journal, 15 /6 :. 437-457)
Checkland, P. (1981). Systems Thinking, Systems Practice. John Wiley & Sons. Chichester.
Chen J.L. and Stanney K.M. (1999). A theoretical model of way finding in virtual environments: Proposed strategies for navigational aiding. Presence, 8(6):671-685
Chermack, T.J. (2004). A Theoretical Model of Scenario Planning. Human Resource Development Review. 3(4) : 301-325
Clarke, I. and Mackaness, W. (2001). Management Intuition: An Interpretative Account of Structure and Content of Decision Schemas Using Cognitive Maps. Journal of Management Studies. 38 (2), 147-172
Cornelius, P., Van de Putte, A., Romani, M. (2005). Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell, California Management Review. 48(1): 92-109
Crowther, K.G. and Y.Y. Haimes, (2008), Scenario Analysis, Cognitive Maps And Concept Maps.
Forthcoming In Wiley Handbook Of Science And Technology Of Homeland Security, Wiley.
Damodaran, A., (2007), Strategic Risk Taking- A Framework For Risk Management, Wharton School Publishing.
Diffenbach, J. (1993). Influence Diagrams for Complex Strategic Issues. Strategic Management Journal. 3: 133-146.
Eden, C. (2004). Analyzing cognitive maps to help structure issues or problems. European Journal of Operational Research. 159 (3): 3673-68
Hodgkinson, G.P., Bown, N.J., Maule, A.J., Glaister, K.W., Pearman, A.D. (1999), Breaking The Frame: An Analysis of Strategic Cognition and Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Strategic Management Journal, 20(10): 977-985
Hong, T. and Han, I., (2002). Knowledge Based Data Mining of News Information on the Internet Using Cognitive Maps and Neural Networks. Experts Systems With Applications. 23:1-8
Jean-Luc De Kok, Titus, M., Wind, H.G (2000). Ap��- plication Of Fuzzy Sets And Cognitive Maps To Incorporate Social Science Scenarios In Integrated Assessment Models, A Case Study Of Urbanization In Ujung Pandang, Indonesia, Integrated Assessment. 1(3):177–188
Jetter A., Schweinfort, W. (2010). Building scenarios with Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: An exploratory study of solar energy. Futures. 43 (2011) : 52–66
Jungk, R. and Mullert, N. (1987). Future workshops: How to create desirable futures. London: Institute for Social Invention.
Klayman, J., Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1993). Thinking About The Future: A Cognitive Perspective. Journal Of Forecasting. 12: 161-186
Klein, J.H. and Cooper, D.F. (1982). Cognitive Maps of Decision-Makers in a Complex Game. Journal of Operational Research Society. 33/1: 63-71
Langfield-Smith, K. (1992). Exploring the need for a shared cognitive map. Journal of Management Studies. 29(3): 349-67
Lene, S., René V., (2003). The Anatomy Of Soft Approaches. Revista Investigation Operational. 24(2):173-189
Mietzner D. and Rege G. 2005. Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. Int. J. Technology Intelligence and Planning. 1(2) :220-239
Montazemi, A. R., and Conrath, D. W. (1986). The Use of Cognitive Mapping for Information Requirement Analysis. MIS Quarterly, 45-56.
Montibeller, G., Gummer , H., Tumidei, D. (2006). Combining Scenario Planning and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Practice. Journal Of Multi- Criteria Decision Analysis. 14: 5–20.
Moyer, K. (1996). Scenario Planning at British Airways- A case study. Long Range Planning, 29(2):172-181
Reibnitz, U. V. 1988. Scenario Techniques. McGraw- Hill Book Company
Ross, L. L., and Hall, R. I. (1980). Influence Diagrams and Organizational Power. Administration Science Quarterly. 25, 57-7
Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of The Long View: Planning for the future in an uncertain world. Doubleday Currency. New York.
Schoemaker, P.J.H (1991). When and How to Use Scenario Planning: A Heuristic Approach with Illustration, Journal of Forecasting, 10: 549-56.
Schoemaker, P.J.H., Van Der Heijden, A.J.M. (1992). Integrating Scenarios into Strategic Planning at Royal Dutch/ Shell. Planning Review. 20(3):41-48
Şahin Ş.Ö., Ülengin, F., Ülengin B. (2002). Senaryo Analizi İçin Dinamik Bir Yaklaşım Önerisi. İTÜ dergisi/B Sosyal Bilimler. 1(1): 35-46
Tolman, E.C. (1948). Cognitive maps in rats and men. Psychological Review, 55: 189-208
Tseng, M.E ve Cheng, A.C (2009).Combining scenario analysis with delphi and the technological substitution model to analyze the development of the OLED TV market. Management of Engineering & Technology, Portland International Conference pages: 2415-2415
Ülengin, F., Karaali F.Ç (2008). Yapay Sinir Ağları ve bilişsel haritalar kullanılarak işsizlik oranı öngörü çalışması. İtü dergisi/D Mühendislik.. 7(3): 15-26
Wack, P. (1985). Scenarios: uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Business Review. 63:72–89.
Wecik K.E., Bougon M. (1977). Cognition in Organizations. An Analysis of The Utrecht Jazz Orchestra. Administrative Science Quarterly 22:606-639
Verity, J. (2003). Scenario planning as a strategy technique. European Business Journal.15(4):185-195
Vidal, R.V.V. (1996). Scenario. Methods and Applica��- tions. CTI Working Paper no. 20, Center for Tele- Information, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, (Downloadable form website http://www.cti. dtu.dk/ publications/workingpaper.php.
Weihrich, H. (1982). The SWOT matrix - A tool for situational analysis. Long Range Planning, 15 (2) :54-66