Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme Bağlantısı: Bootstrap Yaklaşımına Dayalı Nedensellik Analizi

Bu çalışmada Türkiye için 1986-2016 dönemi yıllık zaman serileri kullanılarak finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin belirlenmesine yönelik nedensellik analizleri yürütülmüştür. Nedensellik ilişkisinin test edilmesinde Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) tarafından geliştirilen Kaldıraçlı (Leveraged) Bootstrap yaklaşımı prosedürü takip edilmiştir. Nedensellik analizlerinden elde edilen bulgular genel olarak nedenselliğin yönünün finansal gelişmeden ekonomik büyümeye doğru olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de mevcut zaman diliminde, ağırlıklı olarak Arz Öncüllü Hipotez’in desteklendiğini göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla Türkiye’de finansal gelişmeyi artırmaya dönük uygulamaların ekonomik büyümeye pozitif yönde katkı sunduğu ve bu tür uygulamaların kontrollü ve dikkatli bir şekilde geliştirilmesi gerekliliği çalışmadan elde edilen temel çıkarımdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme, Bootstrap Yaklaşımı, Türkiye

Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus In Turkey: Casuality Analysis Based On Bootsrap Approach

In this study, causality analysis were carried out to specify the relationship between financial development and economic growth using annual data for 1986-2016 period for Turkey. It was followed Leveraged Bootstrap Approach Procedure by Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) to test causality. Findings obtained from causality analysis generally refer to one-way causality towards economic growth from financial development. General results obtained from our study support evidence on supply-leading hypothesis. Consequently, practices towards financial development contribute positively to economic development. Therefore, these practices should be improved in carefull and in a controlled manner.

Keywords:

Financial Development, Economic Growth, Bootstrap Approach, Turkey,

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