Aysa İpek ERDOĞAN

Büyüme imkanı göstergelerinin firma büyümesi tahminindeki başarısı: Bıst örneği

Bu çalışma büyüme imkanı göstergelerinin Türk firmalarının büyüme oranları ile ilişkisinianaliz etmektedir. Çalışmada 1996- 2012 yılları arasında hisse senetleri Borsa İstanbulda (BIST)işlem gören 282 firmanın panel veri seti kullanılmıştır. Büyüme imkan ı göstergeleri olarak piyasadeğeri/defter değeri, Tobins Q, kazanç/fiyat ve sermaye yatırımı harcamaları/toplam varlıklaroranları alınmıştır. Gerçekleşen büyüme ise satış gelirlerindeki ve varlıklardaki üç ve beş yıllık yüzdedeğişim ile hisse başına kazançtaki değişim/toplam varlıklar oranıyla ölçülmüştür. Yapılan panelregresyon analizi sonucunda piyasa değeri/defter değeri oranının, satışlardaki ve toplam varlıklardakibeş yıllık yüzde değişim oranını istatistiksel olarak pozitif etkilediği görülmektedir. Tobins Q oranıise satışlardaki üç yıllık ve beş yıllık değişim oranıyla beraber varlıklardaki beş yıllık değişimoranıyla da pozitif bir ilişkiye sahiptir . Kazanç/fiyat oranı, satışlardaki üç yıllık değişim oranı vevarlıklardaki üç ve beş yıllık değişim oranlarını negatif etkilemektedir. Sermaye yatırımıharcamaları/toplam varlıklar oranının büyüme oranlarıyla istatistiksel olarak anlamlı hiçbir ilişkisibulunmamaktadır.

The success of growth opportunities measures in the prediction of firm growth: The case of bist

This study analyzes the success of growth opportunities measures in predicting the growth ofTurkish companies. Panel data set of 282 firms whose stocks are traded in Borsa Istanbul (BIST) isused in the analysis. Market value/book value, Tobin s Q, earnin gs/price and capital investmentexpenditures/total assets ratios are used as growth opportunities measures. Realized growth ismeasured with the percentage change in sales revenue, percentage change in total assets and changein earnings per share/total as sets ratio for three years and for five years. As a result of the panelregression analysis, it is found that market value/book value ratio has a statistical positive effect onpercentage change in sales and percentage change in total assets over five years. Tobin s Q ratio has a positive relationship with change in sales for three years and five years, in addition to the change intotal assets for five years. Earnings/price ratio has a negative effect on the rate of change in sales forfive years and the rate of change in total assets for three years and for five years. Capital investmentexpenditures/total assets ratio does not have any significant relationship with the realized growthmeasures.

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