International Trade and Economic Growth in Middle East Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

In this study, the relationships between export (EXP), import (IMP) and economic growth (GDP) in Middle East Countries were examined by using yearly data consist of 312 observations between 1993 – 2016. In the empirical analyses, Dumitrescu & Hurlin Causality Test, Westerlund ECM Panel Co-integration and PGM Estimator were employed. The short-term analyses indicated; (a) a bi-directional causality between GDP and IMP, (b) a bi-directional causality between GDP and EXP, (c) a unidirectional causality from EXP to IMP (d) a 1% raise in IMP cause to a 0.19 % increase in GDP, (e) a 1% raise in EXP cause to a 0,34 % increase in GDP. The long-term results revealed (a) a 1% raise in IMP cause to a 0.35 % increase in GDP (b) a 1% raise in EXP cause to a 0,60 % increase in GDP. 28% of the imbalances in a period can be recovered in the next period. The country-level outcomes confirmed a long-term relationship for Cyprus, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Oman, Qatar, S. Arabia, Turkey and Yemen, but not for Bahrain, Kuwait and Lebanon. These findings support the feedback hypothesis, which argues bi-directional causality. International trade may seem necessary for sustainable growth in the long-term based on outcomes of PMG Estimator, it can be said that a structural transformation is necessary to eliminate import dependency in the short term.

Ortadoğu Ülkelerinde Uluslararası Ticaret ve İktisadi Büyüme: Bir Panel Veri Analizi

Bu çalışmada, Orta Doğu ülkelerinde ihracat (EXP), ithalat (IMP) ve iktisadi büyüme (GDP) arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkiler, 1993 - 2016 yılları arasında 312 gözlemden oluşan yıllık veriler kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Analizlerde Dumitrescu & Hurlin Nedensellik Testi, Westerlund ECM Eş-bütünleşme Testi ve PGM Tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Kısa dönem analizleri; (a) GDP ve IMP arasında iki yönlü, (b) GDP ve EXP arasında iki yönlü, (c) EXP’den IMP’ye tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu tespit etmiş ve ayrıca (d) IMP’de % 1 artış, GSYİH’da % 0,19 artışa, (e) EXP’de % 1 artışın, GSYİH’da % 0,34 artışa neden olduğunu bulgulamıştır. Uzun dönemli sonuçlar (a) IMP’de % 1'lik bir artışın GSYİH’da % 0,35'lik bir artışa (b) EXP’de % 1'lik bir artışın GSYİH’da % 0,60'lık bir artışa neden olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca bir dönemde oluşan dengesizliklerin % 28'inin bir sonraki dönemde sistem tarafında telafi edildiği görülmüştür. Ülke düzeyindeki sonuçlar Kıbrıs, Mısır, İran, İsrail, Ürdün, Umman, Katar, S. Arabistan, Türkiye ve Yemen için uzun ilişki olduğunu doğrularken, Bahreyn, Kuveyt ve Lübnan doğrulamamıştır. Bu bulgular geri bildirim hipotezini desteklemektedir. PMG Tahmincisi sonuçlarına dayanarak uluslararası ticaretin uzun vadede sürdürülebilir büyüme için gerekli görülse de kısa dönemde ithalat bağımlılığını ortadan kaldırmak için yapısal bir dönüşümün gerekli olduğu söylenebilir.

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