Güneş Enerjisi Santrali Yatırımlarının Ekonomik Analizi

Yenilenebilir enerji kaynakları küresel ısınma ve ülkelerin enerji güvenliği sorunlarının çözümünde önemli bir role sahiptir. Bu nedenle ülkeler enerji üretimlerinde yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarına yönelmekte ve enerji kaynağı çeşitliliğini artırmaktadır. Yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarından güneş enerjisi diğer enerji kaynaklarına göre hem daha erişilebilir hem de daha az kirliliğe neden olmaktadır. Bu bağlamda güneş enerjisi yatırımlarının ekonomik açıdan değerlendirilmesi oldukça önemlidir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de hipotetik bir fotovoltaik enerji santrali yatırımının ekonomik bağlamda yapılabilirliğinin değerlendirilmesi için indirgenmiş nakit akımı yöntemi kullanılmıştır. İndirgenmiş nakit akımı yöntemi sonucunda hesaplanan yapılabilirlik göstergeleri yatırımın politika mekanizmalarıyla desteklendiği durumda yapılabilir olduğunu gösterirken, yatırımların desteklenmemesi durumunda ekonomik açıdan fotovoltaik yatırımların yapılamayacağı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Monte Carlo simülasyonu sonucunda yatırımın net bugünkü değerinin pozitif olma olasılığı yatırımın desteklendiği durumda %64,1, destek olmaması durumunda ise %30,1 olarak tespit edilmiştir.

Economic Analysis of Solar Power Plant Investment

Renewable energy sources have an important role in dealing global warming and energy security problems of countries. Therefore, the countries support renewable energy sources in their energy production and increase the diversity of energy sources. Solar energy, one of the renewable energy sources, is more accessible and causes less pollution compared to other energy sources. In this context, it is very important to evaluate solar energy investments economically. In this study, the method of discounted cash flow has been used to evaluate economic viability of a hypothetical large scale photovoltaic investment in Turkey. The results of the discounted cash flows method demonstrate that the investment is economically viable when it is supported by the government incentive, but is not viable when it is not supported by any policy mechanism of government. As a result of the Monte Carlo simulation, the probability of the net present value of the investment being positive was determined as 64.1% in case of incentive, and 30.1% in the lack of incentive.

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