An Early Warning Model for Turbulence Management by Using Analytic Hierarchy Process

The business environment is one of the main factors that affect its activities thereby the existence of the business is influenced, however; it has a dynamic structure which includes different conditions and situations. Turbulence conditions and situations, one of the features of the business environment, has an impact on the functions and actions of the business. It is a vital obligation for business activities to be continued and not to be interrupted in the conditions of the business turbulence. This should be provided by the business. Therefore, it is important to predict possible conditions or situations of turbulence in terms of maintaining the lifetime of the business. The aim of this study is to develop an early earning model for predicting turbulence conditions that a business can encounter in a macro and sectoral environment. In this study turbulence evaluation criteria and turbulence factors - related to the external environment of business are identified. The external environment factors of business are utilized according to criteria which determine turbulence conditions and situations. In the final phase of the study, turbulence degree of the business environment is determined. In this project Analytic Hierarchy Process that is a multiple criteria decision making technique was used. In the results of this study, it is seen that the turbulence degree of the business environment is % 72, 24 and this degree can be considered as a high level according to the method which was used in this study. When the outcomes of the study are evaluated, it can be observed that the turbulence degree of a business environment can be identified with the model recommended in this study. It can be said that knowing the turbulence degree of the business environment, in which it operates, provides an opportunity to manage the turbulence.

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