ABD Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği ve Kredi Büyümesi: Türkiye’den Kanıt

Bu araştırmanın amacı Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’ndeki ekonomik belirsizliğin Türkiye ekonomisine hangi vasıtalar ile yayıldığını incelemektir. Ekonomik politik belirsizliği, Baker vd. (2016) tarafından geliştirilmş ve seçilen bazı kelimelerin önde gelen gazetelerde ne sıklıkla geçtiği üzerinden hesaplanan bir endekstir. Literatür, ekonomik belirsizliklerin, ertelenen yatırım ve harcama kararları nedeniyle ekonomi büyümesi üzerinde negatif etkileri olduğunu göstermiştir. Fakat belirsizliğin ekonomiler arasında nasil geçişkenlik gösterdiği nispeten daha az çalışılmıştır. Bu nedenle, ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin 1985 ve 2018 arasında Türkiye’deki banka kredileri büyümesi üzerindeki oynaklık yayılımı Hafner ve Herwartz (2006) yöntemi kullanılarak incelenmektedir. Aylık veri kullanarak bulunan sonuçlar ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin banka kredileri üzerinde etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Yani,ekonomik belirsizlik diğer ülkelere esas olarak finansal kurumlar aracılığıyla yayılmaktadır.

US Economic Policy Uncertainty And Loan Growth: Evidence From Turkey

In this paper we aim to examine the transmission channel of US economic policy uncertainty onTurkish economy. We proxy economic uncertainty via the recent measure calculated by Baker etal. (2016), which calculates uncertainty through counting selected word frequencies in a numberof newspapers. Previous literature show that economic uncertainty has significant and negativeimpact on economic growth through investments and consumption. However, there are very fewstudies which check the transmission channel of uncertainty across economies. Hence, weinvestigate whether economic policy uncertainty (EPU) spills over to bank loan growth in Turkeyfor the periods between 1985 and 2018 using Hafner and Herwartz (2006) methodology. Usingmonthly data, we find that, indeed EPU has an impact on bank loans and therefore economicuncertainty mainly diffuses across countries through financial institutions.

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