The Effect of Tax Attractiveness on Direct Foreign Investment Inflows: Panel Data Analysis for Developed and Developing Countries

In the study, the effect of tax attractiveness, which includes many incentive items, on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows, was analyzed by panel data analysis for developed and developing country groups using 2007-2018 period data. Since the tax attractiveness index has been published annually since 2007, this year has been preferred as the starting year. In addition, trade openness, economic freedom index and increase in per capita national income data, which may have an impact on FDI inflows, are also included in the model. Since the model established for developed and developing countries has a horizontal cross-section dependency, the existence of the unit root in the variables was made with Pesaran (2007). Afterwards, it was decided to apply the fixed effect model in developed countries and the random effect model in developing countries with Hausman test. Since the variance, autocorrelation and horizontal cross-section dependency were found in the models, the analysis was estimated by Driscoll Kraay test. As a result of the study, the effect of tax attractiveness on FDI inflows in both country groups was found to be positive and statistically significant. Policy makers can use this information for future tax reforms that can be targeted to increase the attractiveness of the location. While the effect of increase in per capita income per capita on the FDI inflows in developed countries was positive but statistically insignificant, the effect of other variables was found positive and significant for both country groups.

Vergi Çekiciliğinin Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Girişlerine Etkisi: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçin Panel Veri Analizi

Çalışmada birçok teşvik kalemini içeren vergi çekiciliğinin Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım (DYY) girişleri üzerindeki etkisi 2007-2018 dönem verileri kullanılarak gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülke grupları için panel veri analizi ile incelenmiştir. Vergi çekiciliği endeksi 2007 yılından itibaren yıllık olarak yayınlandığı için başlangıç yılı olarak bu yıl tercih edilmiştir. Ayrıca DYY girişleri üzerinde etkisi olabilecek ticari açıklık, ekonomik özgürlük endeksi ve kişi başına düşen milli gelirdeki artış verileri de modele dâhil edilmiştir. Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için kurulan modelde yatay kesit bağımlılığı bulunduğu için değişkenlerdeki birim kökün varlığı Pesaran (2007) ile yapılmıştır. Daha sonrasında Hausman testi ile gelişmiş ülkelerde sabit etkili modelin, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ise rassal etkili modelin uygulanmasına karar verilmiştir. Modellerde değişen varyans, otokorelasyon ve yatay kesit bağımlılığı olduğu tespit edildiği için analiz Driscoll Kraay testi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmanın neticesinde vergi çekiciliğinin her iki ülke grubunda da DYY girişleri üzerindeki etkisi pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur. Politika yapıcılar bu bilgiyi, konumun çekiciliğini artırmak için hedeflenebilecek gelecekteki vergi reformları için kullanabilirler. Kontrol değişkenlerden kişi başına düşen milli gelirdeki artışın gelişmiş ülkelerde DYY girişleri üzerindeki etkisi pozitif ancak istatistiki olarak anlamsız bulunmuşken diğer değişkenlerin etkisi her iki ülke grubu için pozitif ve anlamlı bulunmuştur.

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