Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is of vital importance especially in the economic development efforts of developing countries and constitutes the necessary capital resource for investments in the relevant countries. The main reason why the former Eastern bloc countries, also called transition economies, experience economic growth and development problems after transition to the market system is the lack of capital accumulation in these economies. Also, in these countries, lower savings and higher consumption tendencies emerge as another problem. Investments are also insufficient due to the low level of savings in these countries. This situation brings with it a vicious cycle of low growth and development rate due to lack of savings and of investment. With the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in the early 1990s, the states that gained their independence faced socio-economic problems caused by a sudden transition from the centrally planned economy to the market economy. These economies, in which the transition to the market system is quite painful, are therefore commonly referred to as "Transition Economies".Central Asian Turkish Republics, which are among the transition economies, also need external financial resources to overcome problems such as lack of capital accumulation, low exchange income and public finance deficits. In this study, the factors that determine FDI in four Central Asian Republics (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan) in the period between 2000 and 2016 were analyzed. For this purpose, variables such as economic growth, market size, macroeconomic stability, real effective exchange rate and infrastructure development were used. For this purpose, the factors expected to affect FDI were determined by using Dynamic Panel Data Analysis method by using the GMM estimator of Arellano-Bond (1991). As a result of the empirical analysis, an opposite relationship was found between the real effective exchange rate (rer) and infrastructure (TEL) variables and the dependent variable. It is observed that there is a similar relationship between macroeconomic stability, market size and economic growth variables and dependent variable. The real effective exchange rate (rer), macroeconomic stability (inf) and infrastructure (TEL) variables are statistically significant and largely explain the dependent variable.
Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar (DYY), özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerin ekonomik kalkınma çabalarında hayati bir öneme sahip olmakta ve ilgili ülkelerde yatırımlar için gerekli sermaye kaynağını oluşturmaktadır. Geçiş ekonomisi olarak da adlandırılan eski Doğu bloku ülkelerinin piyasa sistemine geçtikten sonra ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınma sorunları yaşamalarının başlıca nedeni de bu ekonomilerde sermaye birikiminin yetersiz olmasıdır. Ayrıca bu ülkelerde tasarruf eğiliminin düşük; tüketim eğiliminin yüksek oluşu da diğer bir sorun olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. İlgili ülkelerde tasarrufların düşük seviyede gerçekleşmesine bağlı olarak yatırımlar da yetersiz kalmakta; bu durum tasarruf ve yatırım eksikliğine bağlı olarak düşük büyüme ve kalkınma hızı şeklinde bir kısır döngüyü beraberinde getirmektedir. 1990’lı yılların başında Sovyet Sosyalist Cumhuriyetler Birliği’nin dağılmasıyla birlikte bağımsızlığını kazanan devletler, merkezi planlı ekonomiden piyasa ekonomisine ani bir geçişin yol açtığı sosyo-ekonomik sorunlarla karşılaşmışlardır. Piyasa sistemine geçişin oldukça sancılı bir biçimde gerçekleştiği söz konusu ekonomiler bu nedenle ‘’Geçiş Ekonomileri’’ olarak yaygın bir biçimde adlandırılmaktadırlar. Adı geçen geçiş ekonomilerinden olan Orta Asya Türk Cumhuriyetleri de sermaye birikimi yetersizliği, döviz gelirlerinin azlığı ve kamu finansman açıkları gibi sorunları aşabilmek için dışarıdan finansal kaynağa ihtiyaç duymaktadırlar. Bu bağlamda mevcut çalışmada, dört Orta Asya Cumhuriyetinde (Kazakistan, Türkmenistan ve Kırgızistan, Özbekistan) 2000-2016 yılları arasındaki dönemde DYY’ları belirleyen faktörler analiz edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Bu amaçla ekonomik büyüme, pazar büyüklüğü, makroekonomik istikrar, reel efektif döviz kuru ve altyapı gelişmişliği gibi değişkenlerden yararlanılmıştır. Bu amaçla DYY’lara etki etmesi beklenen faktörler Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi yöntemi ile Arellano-Bond (1991)’un GMM tahmincisi kullanılarak belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Yapılan ampirik analiz neticesinde, reel efektif döviz kuru (rer) ve altyapı (TEL) değişkenleri ile bağımlı değişken arasında zıt yönlü; makro ekonomik istikrar, pazar büyüklüğü ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenleri ile bağımlı değişken arasında aynı yönlü bir ilişki bulunduğu görülmüştür. Reel efektif döviz kuru (rer), makroekonomik istikrar (inf) ve altyapı (TEL) değişkenleri, istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olup, bağımlı değişkeni büyük oranda açıklamaktadır
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