Türkiye'de Enflasyon-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Türkiye’de Enşasyon-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de enşasyon-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi 1970-2006 dönemi yıllık veri seti kullanılarak incelenmektedir. Ampirik analizde kullanılan enşasyon ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenleri farklı dereceden durağan (I(1) ve I(0)) oldukları için, değişkenler arasındaki ilişki Peseran, Shin, Smith (2001) tarafından yeni geliştirilen ARDL sınır testi yaklaşı- mıyla araştırılmıştır. ARDL modellerinden elde edilen sonuçlar, enşasyonun büyüme üzerinde hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı negatif etkilerinin olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca çalışmada, Türkiye’de enşasyonun hangi orandan sonra büyümeyi olumsuz etkilediğini bulabilmek için, eşik enşasyon modeline yer verilmiş; ancak enşasyonun eşik değerini anlamlı kılan bir sonuca ulaşılamamıştır.

Inflation-Economic Growth Relationship in Turkey: Bounds Test Approach

Inflation-Economic Growth Relationship in Turkey: Bounds Test Approch This paper empirically investigates the relationship between inflation and economic growth for Turkey using annual data for the period 1970-2006. Examination of the time series properties for the data shows that inflation and economic growth are respectively I(1) and I(0). Therefore, ARDL bounds test approach newly developed by Peseran, Shin, Smith (2001) is employed in the study. The obtained results from ARDL models indicate that inflation has a statistically significant negative impact on economic growth both in the long-run and the short-run. In addition, the threshold model is applied to find the threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slows economic growth in Turkey. However, the results demonstrate that there is not any statistically significiant threshold level of inflation during the concerned period.

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