Türk Bankacılık Sektörünün Küresel Kriz Öncesi ve Sonrasında Mülkiyet Ayrımında İncelenmesi

Bu çalışmada, banka bazında veri ve rassal etkiler modeli kullanılarak, Türk bankacılık sektörünün küresel kriz öncesi ve sonrasındaki yapısı mülkiyet ayrımında incelenmektedir. Bağımlı değişken olarak sermaye yeterliliği, aktif kalitesi, kârlılık ve gelir-gider yapısına ilişkin finansal oranlar kullanılırken; bağımsız değişkenler olarak kredi kalitesi, personel giderleri, kredi kompozisyonu, mali baskınlık, açık pozisyon ve banka büyüklüğüne ilişkin finansal oranlar ve borsada listelenişe yönelik kukla değişken yer almaktadır. Yasal düzenlemeler, maliye politikası, makroekonomik koşullar ve para politikasının banka yapısı üzerindeki etkilerini incelemek amacıyla Basel IIye geçişe ilişkin kukla değişkenin yanı sıra borç stoku, büyüme, enflasyon, döviz kuru, zorunlu karşılıklar ve politika faizi diğer belirleyiciler olarak çalışmaya dâhil edilmiştir. Tahmin sonuçları, kriz öncesi ve sonrası dönemde farklılaştığı gözlenen banka yapısında mülkiyetin önemli rol oynadığına işaret etmektedir. Bu durum, bankaya özgü belirleyiciler ile makroekonomik koşullar ve politikaya ilişkin faktörlerin, mülkiyete bağlı olarak, bankacılık sektörü üzerinde değişen etkilere sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu doğrultuda, ileriki dönemde yapılacak çalışmalarda mülkiyete dayalı farklılıkların bankacılık sektörüne ilişkin analizlerde göz önünde bulundurulması gerektiğinin altı çizilmektedir. Bu sayede, bankacılık sektörü dinamiklerinin daha kolay anlaşılacağı ve gerek para politikası gerekse finansal istikrarı hedefleyen makro ihtiyatı politikaların etkinliğinin artacağı düşünülmektedir.

Analyzing the Banking Sector in Turkey before and after the Global Crisis by Ownership

This paper analyzes the Turkish banking sector before and after the global crisis by ownership, using bank-level data and random effects model. The selected dependent variables are financial ratios on capital adequacy, asset quality, profitability and income-expenditure structure; while main determinants are financial ratios on loan quality, overhead costs, loan composition, fiscal dominance, FX open position, bank size and a dummy variable for bank listing. Other determinants include a dummy variable for the adoption of Basel II, debt stock, growth, inflation, exchange rate, required reserves and policy rate, which capture the effects of regulations, fiscal policy, macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy on bank structure. Estimation results suggest that ownership has a major role on the bank structure, which is observed to be different before and after the global crisis. This indicates that bank-specific determinants as well as macroeconomic conditions and policy-related factors have varying effects on the banking sector depending on ownership. Accordingly, this finding highlights the fact that further research should take into account the ownership-based differences in banking sector analyses. This is considered to facilitate the understanding of the banking sector dynamics and enhance the effectiveness of not only the monetary policy, but also the macroprudential policies aimed at maintaining financial stability.

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