Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Dışlama Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Kamu harcamalarının (veya yatırımlarının) özel sektör yatırımları üzerindeki etkisi tartışılan bir konudur. Bu konuda Neo-Klasik, Keynesyen ve Ricardocu Denklik Teorisi olmak üzere üç yaklaşım bulunmaktadır. Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların (DYY) da özel yatırımlar üzerinde dışlama etkisine benzer etkilerde bulunup bulunmadığı, başka bir ifadeyle doğrudan yabancı yatırımların yurtiçi özel yatırımlar üzerindeki etkileri de literatürde tartışma konusu olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 1975-2006 dönemi verileri kullanılarak Türkiye'deki DYY'ın özel sektör yatırımları üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçları Keynesyen görüşü desteklemekle birlikte, DYY'ın Türkiye'deki özel yatırımlar üzerinde dışlama etkisine sahip olmayıp daha çok özel yatırımları destekleyici etkide bulunmakta olduğu yönündedir. Ancak elde edilen tahmin sonuçları bu etkinin oldukça zayıf olduğunu göstermektedir.

Crowding-out Effect of Foreign Direct Investments: An Application for Turkey

The effect of government expenditures (or investments) on private sector investments is a controversial issue. In this context, there are three different approach called Neoclassical, Keynesian and Ricardian Equivalence Theorem. In the literature, it is also discussed whether or not foreign direct investments (FDI) have same crowding out effect on private investments. In other words, the effects of FDI on domestic private investments are discussed. In this paper, effects of FDI on private sector investments of Turkey are investigated by using data of 1975-2006 period. The results support Keynesian approach. This means that FDI captured by Turkey has not crowding-out effect on domestic private investment, on the contrary it has crowding-in characteristic. But it has also obtained that this crowding-in effect is fairly weak.

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