Jülide YALÇINKAYA KOYUNCU, Hüseyin Safa ÜNAL

Türkiye'de Enflasyonun Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerinde Uzun Dönemli Bir Etkisi Var mıdır ?: Ampirik Kanıt

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi bulmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla 1960-2018 yıllık tüketici fiyatları enflasyon göstergesi olarak kullanılmaktadır. Yıllık GSYH büyüme verileri ise 1960-2018 yılları arasında Türkiye'nin ekonomik büyüme performansının göstergesi olarak analize dahil edilmiştir. Seriler arasında uzun dönemli bir bağlantı olup olmadığını anlamak için ARDL analizi yapılmaktadır. ARDL sınır testi sonucunda enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemli negatif bir ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Heteroskedastisite veya otokorelasyon bakımından istatistiksel bir sorun olmadığı görülmüştür. CUSUM kararlılık testine göre 35. rekürsif regresyondan sonra sıfır seviyesinden sapma olmasına rağmen, katsayılar % 5 anlamlılık düzeyinde hala kararlıdır. Öte yandan, Granger nedensellik testleri, nedensellik yönünün sadece GSYH büyümesinden enflasyona doğru olduğunu, ancak bunun tersi yönde nedenselliğin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmadığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Enflasyon, Tüketici fiyatları, Ekonomik büyüme, ARDL

Does Inflation have a long run impact on Economic Growth in Turkey?: An Empirical Evidence

This study is an attempt to find the long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth in Turkey. For this aim, 1960-2018 annual consumer prices are utilized as the inflation indicator. And, annual GDP growth data are used as indicator of economic growth performance of Turkey for the period between 1960 and 2018. ARDL analysis is conducted to find out if there is a long run linkage between the series. As a result of the ARDL bounds test, there is a long-run negative relationship between inflation and economic growth. There is no statistical problem considering heteroskedasticity or autocorrelation. Although, there is deviation from the zero level after the 35th recursive regression according to CUSUM stability test, coefficients are still stable at 5% significance level. On the other hand, Granger causality tests show that the direction of the causality is only from GDP growth to inflation, but the causality in the reverse order is not statistically significant.

Keywords:

Inflation, Consumer Prices, Economic Growth, ARDL,

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