Geleneksel Olmayan Para Politikasının Makro Etkinliği: Ekonomik Parasal Birlik’te (EPB) Yapısal VAR Analizi (SVAR)

Ağustos 2007’de başlayan Global Finansal Kriz’le mücadelede Merkez Bankaları geleneksel para politikası önlemine - faiz oranı- başvurmuşlar ancak finansal piyasa gerilimlerini azaltmada ve reel ekonomiyi canlandırmada başarılı olamamışlardır. Bu nedenle Merkez Bankaları yeni politika arayışlarına girmişler ve geleneksel olmayan para politikası önlemleri uygulamışlardır. Bu politikalar arasında varlık alımları, likidite enjeksiyonları ve kılavuz politikalar yer almaktadır. Geleneksel olmayan para politikaları uygulayan başlıca Merkez Bankalarının toplam bilanço büyüklükleri de bu doğrultuda artmıştır. Avrupa Merkez Bankası (AMB) da diğer Merkez Bankaları gibi finansal piyasaları sakinleştirmek ve toplam talebi canlandırmak için geleneksel olmayan politikalara başvurmuştur. Bu çalışmada AMB tarafından uygulanan geleneksel olmayan para politikası önlemlerinin etkinliğinin amprik olarak sınanması amaçlanmaktadır. Buradan hareketle, çalışmada Yapısal VAR (SVAR) ekonometrik analizi kullanılmıştır. AMB’nin toplam bilanço büyüklüğü ise geleneksel olmayan para politikası göstergesi olarak seçilmişir. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlara göre AMB, geleneksel olmayan para politikası önlemlerini kullanarak reel ekonomiyi canlandırmada başarılı olurken, finansal piyasa stresini azaltmada yetersiz kalmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Geleneksel olmayan para politikası, Avrupa Merkez Bankası (AMB), varlık alımları, likidite enjeksiyonları, yapısal var

The Macroeffectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Structural VAR Analysis (SVAR) in an Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)

During the Global Financial Crisis that started on August 2007, Central Banks could not be able to abate the financial tensions and expand the real economy with conventional monetary policy- interest rate. Thus, central banks had to implement new monetary policy measures: liquidity injections, asset purchases and forward guidance which are called unconventional monetary policies. Major central banks pursued unconventional monetary policy measures and expanded their balance sheets’ accordingly. ECB – like its counterparts- also used these policies in order to calm financial markets and stimulate aggregate demand. In this study, we are aiming to analyze the effectiveness of these unconventional monetary policy measures. We built our analysis on SVAR methodology and use the size of the balance sheet of the ECB as an indicator of unconventional monetary policy. Our results suggest that, ECB’s unconventional monetary policy is effective on reviving the real economy but not on relieving the financial market stress.

Keywords:

Unconventional monetary policy, European Central Bank (ECB), asset purchases, Liquidity Injections, structural VAR (SVAR),

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