Bilgi İletişim Teknolojileri (ICT) Yayiliminin Faiz Oranlarina Etkisi: Panel Analiz

Çalışmada bilgi iletişim teknolojilerinin (ICT) faiz oranlarına etkisi dört ICT göstergesi ve iki faiz oranı değişkeni kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Panel analizde kullanılan dengesiz veri seti 1990-2013 dönemini kapsayan farklı örneklem büyüklüklerinden oluşmakta olup; en büyüğü 799 gözlem ve 86 ülkeyi içermektedir. Faiz oranları ile ilişkili diğer makroekonomik değişkenler kontrol edilip, otokorelasyon ve değişken varyans durumları dikkate alınarak kullanılan modelin uygulama sonuçları ICT ve faiz oranı arasında güçlü ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı negatif bir ilişkinin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Sözkonusu bulgular dört ICT ve iki faiz oranı temsili değişkenleri için geçerliliğini korumaktadır. Dolayısıyla, ICT yayılımı yüksek olan ülkelerde daha düşük faiz oranları görüleceği sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. Bu bulgu politika yapıcılara, özellikle de para politikası otoritelerine faydalı politika çıkarımları sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

ICT, Interest rate, Panel data, Autocorrelation

The Impact of ICT Penetration on Interest Rates: Panel Analysis

The influences of information and communication technologies (ICT) on interest rates by using four distinct ICT indicators and two different interest rates are investigated. We use an unbalanced data set ranging from 1990 to 2013 for various sample sizes with the largest one containing 799 observations of 86 countries. After controlling for other macroeconomic determinants peculiar to interest rate and taking into account heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation problems in the model, the estimation results disclose an adverse association between information and communication technologies and interest rate. This finding is strong and statistically significant and also does not alter across four different ICT proxies and two distinct interest rates. Therefore we might assert that countries experiencing higher ICT penetration rates face with lower interest rates. This provides policymakers, especially monetary policy authorities, with some useful policy implications.

Keywords:

ICT Interest rate, Panel data, Autocorrelation, Heteroskedasticity.,

PDF

___

Addison, Tony and Almas Heshmati. (2003). The new global determinants of FDI flows to developing countries: The importance of ICT and democratization. WIDER Discussion Papers // World Institute for Development Economics (UNU-WIDER), No. 2003/45, ISBN 9291904775.
Antonopoulos, Christos and Plutarchos Sakellaris. (2009). The contribution of Information and Communication Technology investments to Greek economic growth: An analytical growth accounting framework. Information Economics and Policy, 21, 171–91.
Bakhshi, Hasan and Jens Larsen. (2005). ICT-specific technological progress in the United Kingdom. Journal of Macroeconomics, 27, 648–69.
Chinn, Menzie D. and Robert W. Fairlie. (2010). ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration. Review of International Economics, 18(1), 153–67.
Claessens, Stijn, Thomas Glaessner, and Daniela Klingebiel. (2001). E-finance in Emerging Markets: Is Leapfrogging Possible? World Bank Financial Sector Discussion Paper 7.
Colecchia, Alessandra and Paul Schreyer. (2001). The Impact of Information Communications Technology on Output Growth. STI Working Paper 2001/7. OECD, Paris.
Engelbrecht, Hans-Jürgen and Vilaphonh Xayavong. (2006). ICT intensity and New Zealand’s productivity malaise: Is the glass half empty or half full? Information Economics and Policy, 18, 24–42.
Grüner, Hans Peter. (2009). Information technology: Efficient restructuring and the productivity puzzle. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 72, 916–29.
Ionescu, Luminita. (2013). The positive effect of ICT infrastructure in reducing corruption and increasing transparency. Economics, Management, and Financial Markets, 8(2), 167–72.
Jalava, Jukka and Matti Pohjola. (2002). Economic growth in the New Economy: Evidence from advanced economies. Information Economics and Policy, 14, 189–210.
Jalava, Jukka and Matti Pohjola. (2008). The roles of electricity and ICT in economic growth: Case Finland. Explorations in Economic History, 45, 270–87.
Jorgenson, Dale W. (2001). Information technology and the US economy. American Economic Review, 91(1), 1–32.
Jorgenson, Dale W. (2003). Information technology and the G7 economies. World Economics, 4(4), 139–69.
Jorgenson, Dale W. and Kevin J. Stiroh. (1995). Computers and growth. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 3(3–4), 295–316.
Jorgenson, Dale W. and Kevin J. Stiroh. (1999). Information technology and growth. American Economic Review, 89(2), 109–15.
Jorgenson, Dale W. and Kazuyuki Motohashi. (2005). Information technology and the Japanese economy.’’ Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 19(4), 460–81.
Ko, Kwan Wai. (2008). Financial integration, information and communication technology, and macroeconomic volatility: Evidence from ten Asian economies. Research in International Business and Finance, 22, 124–44.
Lopez-Pueyo, Carmen, Sara Barcenilla-Visus and Jaime Sanau. (2008). International R&D spillovers and manufacturing productivity: A panel data analysis. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 19, 152–72.
Malsha, A.P.S, A.P.R. Jayasinghe and M. Wijeratne. (2011). Effect of ICT on Agricultural Production: A Sri Lankan Case Study. Joint National Conference on Information Technology in Agriculture-2011.
Martinez, Diego, Jesus Rodriguez and Jose L. Torres. (2010). ICT-specific technological change and productivity growth in the US: 1980–2004. Information Economics and Policy, 22(2), 121–29.
Mathur, Akshay and Dhirubhai Ambani. (2005). ICT and rural societies: Opportunities for growth. International Information & Library Review, 37(4), 345-351. DOI:10.1080/ 10572317.2005. 10762692.
McCallum, Bennett T. (1998). Solutions to linear rational expectations models: A compact exposition. Economics Letters, 61, 143–47.
Meng, Qingxuan and Mingzhi Li. (2002). New Economy and ICT development in China. Information Economics and Policy, 14, 275–95.
Ogutu, Sylvester Ochieng, Lulius Juma Okello and David Jakinda Otieno. (2014). Impact of Information and Communication Technology-Based Market Information Services on Smallholder Farm Input Use and Productivity: The Case of Kenya. World Development, 64, 311–21.
Oliner, Stephen D. and Daniel E. Sichel. (1994). Computers and output growth revisited: How big is the puzzle? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 273–317.
Oliner, Stephen D. and Daniel E. Sichel. (2000). The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: Is information technology the story? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(4), 3–22.
Oliner, Stephen D. and Daniel E. Sichel. (2003). Information technology and productivity: Where are we now and where are we going? Journal of Policy Modeling, 25(5), 477–503.
Oulton, Nicholas. (2012). Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting. Economic Modelling, 29, 1722–36.
Schreyer, Paul. (2000). The contribution of information and communication technology to output growth: A study of the G7 countries. STI Working Paper 2000/2, OECD, Paris.
Seo, Hwan-Joo, Young Soo Lee and Jeong Hun Oh. (2009). Does ICT investment widen the growth gap? Telecommunications Policy, 33, 422–31.
Sutherland, Alan. (1996). Financial Market Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility.’’ The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 98(4), 521-39.
Thadaboina, Venkatamallu. (2009). ICT and Rural Development: a Study of Warana Wired Village Project in India. Transition Studies Review, 16, 560–70. DOI 10.1007/s11300-009-0092-z.
Timmer, Marcel P., Gerard Ypma and Bart Van Ark. (2003). IT in the European Union: Driving productivity divergence? Research Memorandum GD-67. Groningen Growth and Development Centre.
Vu, Khuong M. (2013). Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Singapore’s economic growth. Information Economics and Policy, 25, 284–300.
Yartey, Charles Amo. (2008). Financial development, the structure of capital markets, and the global digital divide. Information Economics and Policy, 20, 208–27.
Yi, Myung Hoon and Changkyu Choi. (2005). The effect of the Internet on inflation: Panel data evidence. Journal of Policy Modeling, 27, 885–89.