Prof.dr. Harun TANRIVERMİŞ, Murat MENDEŞ

Konut Üretiminde Arz-Talep Dengesi Kurulamamasının Nedenleri ve Sonuçları

Türk inşaat sektörü, özellikle 1980’li yılların ikinci yarısından itibaren ekonomik büyümenin lokomotifi olmuş, yaşanan ekonomik kriz dönemlerinde bile bu konumunu sürdürmeyi başarmıştır. 2018 yılından itibaren kendini göstermeye başlayan finansal krizin, bu durumu değiştirmemekle birlikte, inşaat sektörünü hiç beklemediği bir şekilde konut fazlası sorunu ile karşı karşıya bıraktığı hususu son birkaç yılda Türkiye kamuoyu gündemini meşgul eden ana başlıklardan biri haline gelmiştir. Konut fazlası veya konut stoku gibi anahtar kelimeler kullanılarak internette bir arama yapıldığında sadece birkaç saniye içinde konuya ilişkin çok sayıda bilgi ve yoruma ulaşılabilmektedir. Üretilen konutların önemli bir bölümünün planlanan takvime uygun şekilde satılamadığına, dolayısıyla da konut stoklarının arttığına ilişkin tespit ve değerlendirmeler ile bu durumun ortaya çıkardığı başarısızlık hikâyeleri bu bilgi ve yorumlardan bazılarıdır. Söz konusu başarısızlığın ortadan kaldırılabilmesi için konut kredisi faizlerinde indirim, peşinat düşürme, taksitleri uzun vadelere yayma, ödemeleri erteleme ve maliyetine satış gibi çeşitli yollara başvurulmuş ve bunlara ilaveten daha neler yapılabileceği konuşulmaya başlanmıştır. Böyle bir ortamda gerçekleştirilen bu çalışmada; sorunun kaynağını oluşturabilecek nedenler tartışılarak gelecekteki geliştirmelere katkı sağlanabilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla öncelikle Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK)’nun yapı ruhsatı, yapı kullanma izin ve ilk satış konut istatistikleri yardımıyla, bahsi geçen sorunun varlığı değerlendirilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar 2000-2019 döneminde ruhsata bağlanarak yapımına başlanılan toplam 12.543.047 bağımsız bölümün %16,96’sına karşılık gelen 2.127.086 adedin tamamlanamadığını, 2012-2020 döneminde yapı kullanma izni almış olan toplam 6.614.059 konutun %23,57’sini oluşturan 1.558.808 adedin ise 2021 yılı sonu itibariyle satılamamış olduğunu göstermiştir. Sonrasında, konut geliştirmenin tamamlanamama ve pazarlanamama başarısızlıkları olarak da nitelendirilebilecek bu durumun neden ve sonuçları üzerine odaklanılmıştır. Genelde gayrimenkul geliştirmenin, özelde konut geliştirmenin temel özellikleri, riskleri ve süreçlerine ilişkin literatür bilgileri temel alınarak, geliştirmede başarı için anahtar olabilecek unsurlar ile bu unsurların gerektiği gibi dikkate alınmamasından doğabilecek sonuçların vurgulanmasına çalışılmıştır. Yapılan değerlendirmeler, konut sektöründe üretim-arz-talep dengesinin kurulabilmesi için proje geliştirme yaklaşımlarının yeniden gözden geçirilmesi gerektiğini göstermiştir. Gelecekteki konut geliştirmelerde; risklerin en önemli kaynağını oluşturan geliştirmenin temel özelliklerine ve risk yönetimi yapılanmasına daha fazla dikkat edilmesi zorunluluğu vurgulanmıştır. Karar vermede en önemli noktayı teşkil eden uygulanabilirlik analizlerine ve bu analizler içerisinde programlamaya, geçmişte olduğundan çok daha fazla önem verilmesi ve bu yönde hareket edilmesi gerektiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Konut Geliştirme, Gayrimenkul Geliştirmede Başarı, Geliştirme Süreçleri, Konut Fazlası, Konut Stoku

Reasons and Consequences of Supply-Demand Establishment in Housing Production

The Turkish construction sector has been the locomotive of economic growth, especially since the second half of the 1980s, and has managed to maintain this position even in times of economic crisis. Although the financial crisis that started to show itself since 2018 did not change this situation, the fact that the construction industry faced the problem of surplus housing in an unexpected way has become one of the main topics that occupied the public agenda of Turkey in the last few years. When a search is made on the Internet using keywords such as housing surplus or housing stock, many information and comments on the subject can be found in just a few seconds. Some of these information and comments are the determinations and evaluations that a significant part of the houses produced could not be sold in accordance with the planned schedule, thus increasing the housing stocks, and the failure stories brought about by this situation. To eliminate the said failure, various ways such as reducing the housing loan interest rates, reducing the down payment, extending the installments over long terms, delaying the payments and selling at the cost have been used, and in addition to these, it has been started to talk about what can be done. In this study carried out in such an environment; It is aimed to contribute to future developments by discussing the reasons that may cause the source of the problem. For this purpose, first of all, the existence of the aforementioned problem has been evaluated with the help of the Turkish Statistical Institute's (TUIK) construction license, occupancy permit and first sales house statistics. The results obtained indicate that 2,127,086 units, corresponding to 16.96% of the 12,543,047 independent sections that were licensed and started to be built in the period of 2000-2019, could not be completed. The results also showed that 1,558,808 units, which constitute 23.57% of the total 6,614,059 residences that received occupancy permits in the 2012-2020 period, could not be sold by the end of 2021. Afterwards, the focus is on the causes and consequences of this situation, which can also be described as the failure of the housing development to be incomplete and unmarketable. Based on the literature on the basic features, risks and processes of real estate development in general, and housing development in particular, it has been tried to emphasize the factors that may be key to success in development and the consequences that may arise from not taking these factors into account properly. Evaluations have shown that project development approaches need to be reconsidered in order to establish a production-supply-demand balance in the housing sector. In future housing developments; It was emphasized that more attention should be paid to the basic features of development which constitute the most important source of risks and risk management structure. It has been concluded that applicability analyzes, which constitute the most important point in decision-making, and programming within these analyzes should be given more importance than in the past and acted in this direction.

Keywords:

Housing Development, Success in Real Estate Development, Development Stages, Housing Surplus, Housing Stock,

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İnternet Kaynakları
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