Transfer Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde 1990-2011 Dönemi İçin Bir Panel Veri Analizi

Bu çalışmanın amacı kamu transfer harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin ampirik olarak sınanmasıdır. Bu amaçla kamu transfer harcamalarının tanımı ve kapsamına ilişkin tartışmaların ardından literatürde az çalışılan, gelişmekte olan ülkeler için 1990-2011 dönemi verilerinden yararlanılarak panel veri tahmini gerçekleştirilmiştir. Uygulama kısmının tasarımında, model kurulumuna ilişkin literatürde tespit edilen bir eksikliğin giderilmesi amacıyla bütçenin gelir tarafı da dikkate alınarak model kurgulanmıştır. Çalışmanın temel bulgusu; transfer harcamalarının üretken nitelikte olduğunu savunan birtakım çalışmaların aksine gelişmekte olan ülkelerde kamu transfer harcamalarının iktisadi büyüme üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığı yönünde ve mali politikaların büyüme oranlarını etkilemeyeceğini savunan neoklasik büyüme teorisini destekler niteliktedir

The Effectof Transfer Payments on Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis for Developing Countries for 1990-2011

The aim of this paper is to empirically test the relationship between government transfer payments and economic growth. For that purpose, we employ rarely studied 1990-2011 data of developing countries and estimate panel data after debates about the definition and the scope of transfer payments. In the design of the empirical model, we set up a model by considering revenue budget in order to eliminate the lack of literature. On the contrary to some previous studies in which transfer payments are asserted as productive, our results suggest that; transfer payments have no significant effect on economic growth in developing countries. Our results also confirm neoclassical growth theory which upholds that fiscal policies do not affect growth rates

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