SERKAN ERKAM, PELİN VAROL İYİDOĞAN, Uğur İlker ERDOĞAN

Ödemeler bilançosu aşamaları hipotezine ilişkin çok Ülkeli bir analiz

Ülkelerin ödemeler bilançolarının doğal yasalara tabi olduğu ve belirli aşamaları izlediği fikri 19. yüzyıla kadar uzanmaktadır. Ödemeler bilançosu aşamaları hipotezi olarak adlandırılan bu teoriye göre ödemeler bilançosu aşamaları ile iktisadi büyüme arasında nedensel ve doğrusal bir ilişki mevcuttur. Bu çalışma, söz konusu hipotezin geçerliliğini üç farklı örnekleme uygulanan çoklu karşılaştırma testleri yardımıyla değerlendirmektedir. 175 ve 62 ülkeli örneklemlerde ilk dört aşama boyunca gelir düzeyinin artması hipotezi desteklemektedir. Dördüncü aşamadan sonra gözlenen tersi durum, hipoteze konu olan ilişkinin doğrusal olmayan bir yapıda olabileceği şeklinde yorumlanmaktadır. G-7 ülkeleri analiz edildiğinde, gelir düzeyindeki artışın son aşamada mevcut olması bu yorumun ihtiyatla yapılmasını gerektirmektedir.

A Multi-country analysis of balance of payments stages hypothesis

The notion that countries’ balance of payments accounts are subject to natural laws and follow a regular path goes back to the 19th century. According to this theory, namely the balance of payments stages hypothesis, there is a causal and linear connection between the balance of payments stages and economic growth. This paper evaluates the validation of the said hypothesis by applying multiple comparison tests to three different samples. The increasing level of income for the first four stages in the 175- and the 62-country samples supports the stages hypothesis. The contrary situation observed after the fourth stage could be interpreted in favor of the non-linear structure of the variables related to the hypothesis. This interpretation should be done cautiously as the level of income increases at the last stage for G-7 countries.

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