Ülkelerin Finansal açıdan kredi notlarını etkileyen faktörler ve kredi derecelendirme kuruluşlarının bu faktörler çerçevesinde değerlendirilmesi

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de uygulanan maliye politikalarıyla kredi derecelendirme kuruluşları tarafından verilen kredi notlarının ilişkisini ve kredi derecelendirme kuruluşlarının tahmin yaparken tutarlı ve objektif olup olmadıklarını istatistiksel bir yöntemle ülke karşılaştırmalarıyla birlikte ortaya koymaktır. Bu amaçla seçilen 12 ülkenin 2000-2011 yılları arasındaki GSYİH büyüme hızları, enflasyon oranları, işsizlik düzeyleri, cari açıkları, kamu gelirleri, kamu giderleri, bütçe dengeleri, birincil dengeleri ve kamu borçlarının değişim oranları logit modeliyle değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda maliye politikası değişkenlerinin kredi notlarının belirlenmesindeki etkisinin makro parametrelerin etkisine göre daha yüksek olduğu hesaplanmış, kredi derecelendirme kuruluşlarının kredi notu verirken her zaman objektif ve tutarlı davranmadıkları da gözlenmiştir.

Factors Financially affecting the credit ratings of countries and evaluation of credit rating agencies within the scope of such factors

The aim of this study is to reveal the relationship between fiscal policies implemented in Turkey and the credit ratings given by credit rating agencies and whether credit rating agencies are consistent and objective with a statistical method along with comparisons among countries. Thus, figures of GDP growth, inflation rates, unemployment rates, current account deficits, public revenues, public expenditures, budget balances, primary balance and public debts were evaluated for 12 selected countries thereof between 2000-2011 through logit model. The results of the study point out that the effects of variables of fiscal policy on determination of credit rating are greater than the effects of macro-parameters and the cretid rating agencies are not always objective and consistent in their credit rating systems.

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