Ali Yasin KALABAK, Okan AVUNDUK, Selin KARATEPE

Devletin Ekonomideki Boyutu Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz: 1960-2019 Türkiye Örneği

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de 1960-2019 dönemi için Armey eğrisinin geçerliliği araştırılmıştır. Bağımlı değişken, ekonomik büyümeyi temsilen GSYH’nin logaritmik farkı; bağımsız değişken, devletin ekonomideki boyutunu temsilen kamu harcamalarının GSYH içerisindeki payıdır. Seriler geleneksel birim kök testlerinin ardından içsel ve dışsal yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleriyle incelenmiş; her iki serinin de kırılmalı trend durağan olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Sonrasında devletin ekonomideki optimal boyutunu tespit etmek için oluşturulan ikinci dereceden polinom OLS yöntemiyle tahmin edilmiş; kamu harcamalarının GSYH içerisindeki payı yaklaşık %26 olarak kestirilmiştir. Bu bağlamda anılan paydan ortak toplumsal ihtiyaçların karşılanmasından sonra kalacak harcama tutarının verimli alanlara kanalize edilmesi, bu yapılırken de objektif bilimsel kriterler kullanılması önerilmektedir.

An Empirical Analysis on the Size of the State in the Economy: A Case of Turkey 1960-2019

This study investigates the validity of the Armey curve for Turkey from 1960 to 2019. The logarithmic difference of GDP, representing the economic growth, is used as a dependent variable whereas the share of government expenditure in GDP, representing the size of the state in the economy, is used as an independent variable. The stationarity of these series is first investigated using traditional unit root tests, then using both endogenous and exogenous structural break unit root tests. Test results indicate that both series are trend-stationary with structural breaks. Therefore, parameters of the second-degree polynomial could simply be estimated using the OLS method. The share of government expenditure in GDP is estimated significantly and indicates that the optimal size of government is approximately 26%. In this context, it is proposed that the amount of expenditure remaining after meeting common social needs from the aforementioned share should be channeled to productive areas, and objective scientific criteria should be used while realizing this proposal.

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