Türkiye’de Wagner Kanunu ve Keynesyen Hipotez İkilemi: 1960-2019 Dönemi

Çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de kamu harcamaları ve gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla arasındaki ilişkinin ve dolayısıyla kamu harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin ortaya konulmasıdır. Literatür değerlendirildiğinde bu alanda yaygın iki teori olduğu görülmektedir. Bunlardan birisi Wagner Kanunudur ve buna göre ekonomik büyüme neticesinde kamu harcamalarının artacağı savunulmaktadır. Diğeri ise Keynesyen Hipotezidir ve ekonomik büyümenin kamu harcamaları artışına bağlı olacağı savunulmaktadır. Bu alanda yapılan analizler periyot için tek bir sonuç elde etmektedir. Fakat periyot içerisinde birden fazla durum söz konusudur. Dolayısıyla geleneksel analizler bu alanda eksik kalmaktadır. Bu eksikliği gidermek adına çalışmada Wavelet Coherence Analizi ile periyot bütünü analiz edilmiştir.

Wagner's Law and Keynesian Hypothesis Dilemma in Turkey: The Period of 1960-2019

The aim of the study is to determine the relationships between public expenditure and both gross national product and economic growth in Turkey. When the literature is evaluated, it is seen that there are two common theories in this field. One of these is the Wagner’s law and accordingly it is claimed that public expenditures will increase as a result of economic growth. The other is the Keynesian hypothesis and it is argued that economic growth will depend on the increase in public expenditures. Analyzes made in this area obtain only one result for the period. However, there is more than one situation in the period. Therefore, traditional analyzes remain incomplete in this area. In order to eliminate this deficiency, the whole period was analyzed with Wavelet Coherence analysis in the study.

PDF

___

Aguiar-Conraria, L., Azevedo, N. ve Soares, M.J. (2008), “Using Wavelets to Decompose the Time-Frequency Effects of Monetary Policy”, Physica A, 387(12), 2863-2878.
Ali, W. ve Munir, K. (2016), “Testing Wagner Versus Keynesian Hypothesis for Pakistan: The Role of Aggregate and Disaggregate Expenditure”, Munich Personal RepEc Archive.
Altunç, Ö.F. (2011), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye’ye İlişkin Ampirik Kanıtlar”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 18(2), 145-157.
Antonis, A., Constantinos, K. ve Persefoni, T. (2013), “Wagner’s Law Versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Evidence from Pre-WWII Greece”, Panoeconomicus, 60(4), 457-472.
Atkinson, A.B. ve Stiglitz, J.E. (2015), Lectures on Public Economics, Princeton University Press, NJ: McGraw-Hill.
Ay, A. (2006), “Türkiye’de Wagner Teorisi Üzerine VAR Analizi”, Selçuk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, Sayı:12, 293-314.
Baumol, W.J. (1967), “The Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: The Anatomy of Urban Crises”, American Economic Review, 57(3), 415-426
Bayrakdar, S., Demez, S. ve Yapar, M. (2015), “Testing the Validity of Wagner’s Law: 1998-2004, The Case of Turkey”, Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 195, 493-500.
Chih-HL, L., Hsu, C. ve Younis, M.Z. (2008), “The Association Between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: The Granger Causality Test of the US Data, 1974-2002”, Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting and Financial Management, 20(4), 439-52.
Diamond, J. (2007), “Wagner’s ‘Law’ and the Developing Countries”, The Developing Economies, 15(1), 37-59.
Gacaner, A. (2005), ''Türkiye Açısından Wagner Kanunu'nun Geçerliliğinin Analizi '', Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 20(1), 103-122.
Garry, S. ve Rivas Valdivia, J.C. (2017), An Analysis of the Contribution of Public Expenditure to Economic Growth and Fiscal Multipliers in Mexico, Central America and the Dominican Republic, 1990-2015, United Naitons Publication.
Ghazy, N.H., Ghoneim, H. ve Papares, D. (2021), “The Validity of Wagner’s Law in Egypt from 1960-2018”, Review of Economics and Political Science, 6(2), 98-117.
Gül, E. ve Yavuz, H. (2011), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1963-2008 Dönemi”, Maliye Dergisi, Sayı:160, 72-85.
Halicioglu, F. (2003), “Testing Wagner’s Law for Turkey, 1960-2000”, Review Middle East Economic and Finance, 1(2), 129-140
Henrekson, M. (1993), “Wagner’s Law-A Spurious Relationship?”, Public Finance, 48(2), 406-415.
Ighodaro, C.A. ve Oriakhi, D.E. (2010), “Does the Relationship Between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth Follow Wagner’s Law in Nigeria”, Annals of University of Petrosani Economics, 10(2), 185- 198.
Jamshaid, R., Iqbal, A. ve Siddiqi, M.W. (2010) “Cointegration-Causality Analysis Between Public Expenditures and Economic Growth in Pakistan”, European Journal of Social Sciences, 13(4), 556-565.
Ju Huang, C. (2006), “Government Expenditures in China and Taiwan: Do they Follow Wagner’s Law?”, Journal of Economic Development, 31(2), 139-148.
Kamasa, K. ve Abebrese, G.O. (2015), “Wagner or Keynes for Ghana? Government Expenditure and Economic Growth Dynamics, A ‘VAR’ Approach”, Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, 4.
Keynes, J.M. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, London: Macmillan.
Lamartina, S. ve Zaghini, A. (2010), “Increasing Public Expenditure: Wagner’s Law in OECD Countries”, German Economic Review, 12(2), 149-164.
Loizides, J. ve Vamvoukas, G. (2005), “Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Trivariate Causality Testing”, Journal of Applied Economics, 8(1), 125-152.
Magazzino, C., Giolli, L. ve Mele, M. (2015), “Wagner’s Law and Peacock and Wiseman’s Displacement Effect in European Union Countries: A Panel Data Study”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(3), 812-819.
Memon, I.A., Kalhoro, M.S. ve Payne, A. (2013), “Wavelet Coherence Analysis of Change Blindness”, Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering & Technology, 32(1).
Musgrave, R.A. (1989), Public Finance in Theory and Practise, McGrawHill Book, First Edition, New York.
Naghdy, G.A., Wang, J. ve Ogunbona, P.O. (1996), “Texture Analysis Using Gabor Wavelets In Human Vision and Electronic Imaging”, International Society for Optics and Photonics, 2657, 74-85,
Oktayer, A. ve Oktayer, N. (2013), “Testing Wagner’s Law for Turkey: Evidence from a Trivariate Causality Analysis”, Prague Economic Papers, 284-301.
Omoke, P. (2009), “Government Expenditure and National Income: A Causality Test for Nigeria”, European Journal of Economic and Political Studies, 2, 1-11.
Pal, D. ve Mitra, S.K. (2019), “Oil Price and Automobile Stock Return CoMovement: A Wavelet Coherence Analysis”, Economic Modelling, 76, 172-181.
Peacock, A. ve Wiseman, J. (1961), “Determinants of Government Expenditure”, Peacock A. & Wiseman J. (Edt.) The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom, 12-34, Princeton University Press.
Ramsey, J. ve Lampart, C. (1998), “The Decomposition of Economic Relationship by Scale Using Wavelets: Expenditure and Income”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 3(1).
Rathinasamy, M., Agarwal, A., Parmar V., Khosa R. ve Bairwa A. (2017), “Partial Wavelet Coherence Analysis for Understanding the Standalone Relationship Between Indian Precipitation and Teleconnection Patterns”, arXiv preprint arXiv: 1702.06568.
Rostow, W.W. (1959), “The Stages of Economic Growth”, The Economic History Review, New Series, 12(1), 1-16.
Rua, A. ve Nunes, C. (2009), “International Comovement of Stock Market Returns: A Wavelet Analysis”, Journal of Empiricial Finance, 16(4), 632-639.
Sinha, D. (2007), “Does the Wagner’s Law hold for Thailand? A Time Series Study”, Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University, Japan, Macquarie University, MPRA Paper, No.2560.
Şanlısoy, S. ve Sunal, O. (2016), “Kamu Harcamaları-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, 7(17), 102-122.
Tabar, F.J., Najafi, Z. ve Sistani Badooei Y. (2017), “The Impact of Educational Expenditures of Government on Economic Growth of Iran”, AD-minister, 30, 217-235.
Wagner, A. (1883), “Three Extracts on Public Finance” (Çev. N. Cooke), R.A. Musgrave & A.T. Peacock (edt.), Classics in the Theory of Public Finance, London: Macmillan, 1958.
Yayla, N. ve Yaraşır Tülümce, S. (2017), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamalarının Bileşenleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Wagner ya da Keynes?”, Social Sciences, 12(4), 163-184.