Hastalık Biyocoørafyası: Kırım-Kongo Kanamalı Ateşi Hastalık Bulaşma Döngüsü ile Örnek Bir Çalışma

Ekolojik niş modellemesi, son yıllarda özellikle biyocoğrafi çalışmalarda yaygın olarak kullanılır. Doğal olarak bulaşıcı hastalıkların coğrafi dağılımı üzerine odaklanan hastalık biyocoğrafyası çalışmalarının da önemli bir bileşenidir. Hastalık biyocoğrafyası, epidemiyolojide yeni bir paradigmadır ve sadece alansal örüntüyü (hastalık vakalarının alansal dağılımını) değil, ayrıca çevresel değişkenliği (örneğin, iklimi, toprak özelliklerini) kullanır. Bu derleme, ekolojik niş modellemesinin hastalık biyocoğrafyasında kullanımı ile ilgili çok temel bir kavramsal çerçeve vermeyi amaçlar. Örnek bir çalışma olarak, Kırım-Kongo kanamalı ateşi virüs patojeninin ekolojik nişi ve dağılım alanı modellenmiştir.

Disease biogeography: a case study with Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever transmission cycle

Ecological niche modelling has been widely used in recent biogeographic studies. Naturally, it is the key component of disease biogeography, the study of the geographic distribution of infectious diseases. Disease biogeography is a new paradigm in epidemiology, and uses not just spatial patterns (the spatial distribution of disease cases), but also environmental variation (e.g., climate, soil characteristics). This review aims to provide a very basic conceptual framework for applying the concepts and tools from ecological niche modeling to disease biogeography. As a case study, the ecological niche and distributional area of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus pathogen were modelled.

___

  • Ada E. 2016. Avrupa Filocoørafi Örüntülerinde Anadolu'nun Rolü. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Hacettepe Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü.
  • AlvaradoဨSerrano D.F., Knowles L.L. 2014. “Ecological niche models in phylogeographic studies: applications, advances, and precautions”. Molecular Ecology Resources, 14: 233-248.
  • Atalay İ. 1994. Türkiye Vejetasyon Coørafyası. Ege Üniversitesi Basımevi. İzmir.
  • Barve N., Barve V., Jiménez-Valverde A., Lira-Noriega A., Maher S.P., Peterson A.T., Soberón J., Villalobos F. 2011. “The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling”. Ecological Modelling, 222: 1810-1819.
  • Booth T.H., Nix H.A., Busby J.R., Hutchinson M.F. 2014. “BIOCLIM: the first species distribution modelling package, its early applications and relevance to most current MAXENT studies”. Diversity and Distributions, 20: 1-9.
  • Brown J.L., Bennett J.R., French C.M. 2017. “SDMtoolbox 2.0: the next generation Pythonbased GIS toolkit for landscape genetic, biogeographic and species distribution model analyses”. PeerJ, 5: e4095.
  • Cox C.B., Moore P.D., Ladle R. 2016. Biogeography: An Ecological and Evolutionary Approach. John Wiley & Sons. New York.
  • Deka M.A. 2018. “Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever geographic and environmental risk assessment in the Balkan and Anatolian peninsulas”. Papers in Applied Geography, 4: 46-71.
  • Dereli A.S., Kayser V. 2018. “Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever: a bibliometric assessment of the literature”. Journal of Infection and Public Health, 11: 147-148.
  • Eken G., Bozdoğan M., İsfendiyaroğlu S., Kılıç D.T., Lise Y. (editörler) 2006. Türkiye’nin Önemli Doøa Alanları. Doğa Derneği. Ankara.
  • Elith J., Leathwick J.R. 2009. “Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time”. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 40: 677-697.
  • Elith J., Kearney M., Phillips S. 2010. “The art of modelling rangeဨshifting species”. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 1: 330-342.
  • Elith J., Phillips S.J., Hastie T., Dudík M., Chee Y.E., Yates C.J. 2011. “A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists”. Diversity and Distributions, 17: 43-57.
  • Elton C.S. 1927. Animal Ecology. Sidgwich and Jackson. London.
  • EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare. 2010. “Scientific opinion on the role of tick vectors in the epidemiology of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever and African swine fever in Eurasia”. EFSA Journal, 8: 1703.
  • Escobar L.E., Craft M.E. 2016. “Advances and limitations of disease biogeography using ecological niche modeling”. Frontiers in Microbiology, 7: 1174.
  • Estrada-Peña A., Zatansever Z., Gargili A., Aktas M., Uzun R., Ergonul O., Jongejan F. 2007. “Modeling the spatial distribution of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever outbreaks in Turkey”. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, 7: 667-678.
  • Estrada-Peña A., Vatansever Z., Gargili A., Ergönul Ö. 2010. “The trend towards habitat fragmentation is the key factor driving the spread of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever”. Epidemiology & Infection, 138: 1194-1203.
  • Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). 2018. Livestock densities. . Son erişim tarihi 15 Eylül 2018.
  • Grinnell J. 1914. “Barriers to distribution as regards birds and mammals”. American Naturalist, 48: 248-254.
  • Grinnell J. 1917. “Field tests of theories concerning distributional control”. American Naturalist, 51: 115-128.
  • Grinnell J. 1924. “Geography and evolution”. Ecology, 5: 225-229.
  • Guisan A., Thuiller W. 2005. “Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models”. Ecology Letters, 8: 993-1009.
  • Gür H. 2013. “The effects of the Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles on Anatolian ground squirrels: range expansion during the glacial periods?” Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 109: 19-32.
  • Gür H. 2016. “The Anatolian diagonal revisited: testing the ecological basis of a biogeographic boundary”. Zoology in the Middle East, 62: 189-199.
  • Gür H., Perktaş U., Kart Gür M. 2018. “Do climate-driven altitudinal range shifts explain the intraspecific diversification of a narrow ranging montane mammal, Taurus ground squirrels?” Mammal Research, 63: 197-211.
  • Hoogstraal H. 1979. “The epidemiology of tick-borne Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in Asia, Europe, and Africa”. Journal of Medical Entomology, 15: 307-417.
  • Hutchinson G.E. 1957. “Concluding remarks”. Cold Spring Harbor Symposia on Quantitative Biology, 22: 415-427.
  • Hutchinson G.E. 1978. An Introduction to Population Ecology. Yale University Press. New Haven, CT.
  • Karger D.N., Conrad O., Böhner J., Kawohl T., Kreft H., Soria-Auza R.W., Zimmermann N.E., Linder H.P., Kessler M. 2017a. “Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas”. Scientific Data, 4: 170122.
  • Karger D.N., Conrad O., Böhner J., Kawohl T., Kreft H., Soria-Auza R.W., Zimmermann N.E., Linder H.P., Kessler M. 2017b. Data from: “Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas”. Dryad Digital Repository. Son erişim 01 Ağustos 2018.
  • Merow C., Smith M.J., Silander Jr J.A. 2013. “A practical guide to MaxEnt for modeling species’ distributions: what it does, and why inputs and settings matter”. Ecography, 36: 1058-1069.
  • Messina J.P., Pigott D.M., Golding N., Duda K.A., Brownstein J.S., Weiss D.J., Gibson H., Robinson T.P., Gilbert M., Wint G.R.W., Nuttall P.A., Gething P.W., Myers M.F., George D.B., Hay S.I. 2015a. “The global distribution of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever”. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 109: 503-513.
  • Messina J.P., Pigott D.M., Duda K.A., Brownstein J.S., Myers M.F., George D.B., Hay S.I. 2015b. “A global compendium of human Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus occurrence”. Scientific Data, 2: 150016.
  • Orkun Ö., Karaer Z., Çakmak A., Nalbantoğlu S. 2017. “Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in ticks in Turkey: a broad range tick surveillance study”. Infection, Genetics and Evolution, 52: 59-66.
  • Osorio-Olvera L., Barve V., Barve N., Soberón J., Falconi M. 2018. ntbox: from getting biodiversity data to evaluating species distribution models in a friendly GUI environment. R package version 0.2.5.4. . Son erişim 15 Eylül 2018.
  • Peterson A.T. 2008. “Biogeography of diseases: a framework for analysis”. Naturwissenschaften, 95: 483-491.
  • Peterson A.T. 2014. Mapping Disease Transmission Risk: Enriching Models Using Biogeography and Ecology. Johns Hopkins University Press. Baltimore.
  • Peterson A.T., Papeş M., Soberón J. 2008. “Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling”. Ecological Modelling, 213: 63-72.
  • Peterson A.T., Soberón J., Pearson R.G., Anderson R.P., Martínez-Meyer E., Nakamura M., Araújo M.B. 2011. Ecological Niches and Geographic Distributions (MPB-49). Princeton University Press. Princeton ve Oxford.
  • Phillips S.J., Anderson R.P., Dudík M., Schapire R.E., Blair M.E. 2017. “Opening the black box: an open-source release of Maxent”. Ecography, 40: 887-893.
  • Richards C.L., Carstens B.C., Lacey Knowles L. 2007. Distribution modelling and statistical phylogeography: an integrative framework for generating and testing alternative biogeographical hypotheses. Journal of Biogeography, 34: 1833-1845.
  • Saupe E.E., Barve V., Myers C.E., Soberón J., Barve N., Hensz C.M., Peterson A.T., Owens H.L., Lira-Noriega A. 2012. “Variation in niche and distribution model performance: the need for a priori assessment of key causal factors”. Ecological Modelling, 237-238: 11-22.
  • Soberón J., Peterson A.T. 2005. “Interpretation of models of fundamental ecological niches and species’ distributional areas”. Biodiversity Informatics, 2: 1-10.
  • Tuanmu M.-N., Jetz W. 2014. “A global 1-km consensus land-cover product for biodiversity and ecosystem modeling”. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23: 1031-1045.
  • Tuanmu, M.-N., Jetz W. 2015. “A global, remote sensing-based characterization of terrestrial habitat heterogeneity for biodiversity and ecosystem modeling”. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 24: 1329-1339.
  • Vatansever Z., Uzun R., Estrada-Pena A., Ergonul O. 2007. “Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in Turkey”. in Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever, A Global Perspective (pp. 59-74). Springer. Dordrecht.
  • Wilson A.M., Jetz W. 2016. “Remotely sensed high-resolution global cloud dynamics for predicting ecosystem and biodiversity distributions”. PLoS Biol, 14: e1002415.
  • World Health Organization (WHO). 2018. Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever. . Son erişim 01 Ekim 2018.