Finansal Küreselleşme-Para Krizi Nedenselliği ve Para Krizlerinin Tahmin Edilebilirliği: Türkiye, 1990-2002

Özet Bu çalışma, finansal küreselleşme ile para krizleri arasında iktisadi bir nedensellik ilişkisi olup olmadığım test etmek ve para krizlerinin tahmin olasılıklarını hesaplamak üzere yapılmıştır. Çalışma 1990-2002 dönemi Türkiye ekonomisi aylık zaman serisi verilerini kapsamaktadır. para krizi çıkma olasılıkları beş model kapsamında ve toplam 31 açıklayıcı değişken kullanılarak hesaplanmıştır. Bulgular, Türkiye örneğinde ve 1990-2002 dönemi için finansal küreselleşme olgusunun para krizlerinin % l0 önem seviyesinde Granger nedeni olduğunu göstermektedir.

Financial Globalization-Currency Criss Causality and Predictability of Currency Crises: Turkey,1990-2002

Abstract This paper tests the Granger Causality between financial globalisation and currency crises and calculates predicted probabilities of currency crises. The probabilities of currency crises were calculated by five models including 31 explanatory variables by using monthly time series data. The-findings show that financial globalisation Granger-Causes

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