Türkiye ve brıc ülkeleri arasındaki ticaret hacminin belirleyicileri: Panel çekim modeli analizi

BRIC terimi, gelecek 40 yıl içinde dünyanın en güçlü ekonomileri olması beklenen büyüyen piyasaları ifade etmektedir. Bu ülkelerin; Fransa, Almanya, İtalya, Japonya, İngiltere ve ABD’den oluşan G6 ülkelerinin ekonomik büyüme rakamlarını yakalayacakları ve sonrasında bu ülkelerin, gelişmiş ekonomilerdeki yavaşlayan büyümeyi ve nüfusu dengeleyecek yeni talep büyümesinin ve harcama gücünün ana motoru haline geleceği tahmin edilmektedir. Türkiye’nin de içinde bulunduğu onbir ülkenin (N-11) daha, BRIC ülkelerine benzer bir ekonomik performans göstermesi ve dünya ekonomisinde söz sahibi olması beklenmektedir. Buna göre, Türkiye ve beraberinde üç ülke daha (Meksika, Endonezya ve Güney Kore), 2050 perspektifinde, bu gruptaki en fazla potansiyel sahibi ve umut vaat eden ülkeleri olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Bu bağlamda Türkiye’nin dünya ekonomisindeki konumu ve BRIC ülkeleriyle olan dış ticareti de giderek önem kazanmaktadır. Çalışmada, Türkiye ve BRIC ülkeleri arasındaki ticaret hacmi, panel çekim modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmiş ve diğer çalışmalardan farklı olarak modele; bu endekslerin, Türkiye’nin BRIC ülkeleriyle olan ticaretini ne yönde etkilediklerini araştırmak için Ticaret Bağlılık Endeksi, İthalat Nüfuz Endeksi ve İhracat Eğilim Endeksi dâhil edilmiştir.

The determinants of trade volume between Turkey and bric countries: A gravity model analysis

The acronym BRIC expresses the “growth markets” which are expected to become the most powerful economies in the next 40 years. These countries are estimated to catch up with G6 countries’ economic growth figures and to become the main engine of new increase in demand and spending power to balance the slowing economic growth and population in the developed economies. The N-11 countries including Turkey are expected to have a similar economic performance of BRIC countries and to have an effect in the world economy. As a result of this, Turkey with other 3 countries, Mexico, Indonesia and South Korea, emerge as the most potential owner and promising countries in the perspective of 2050. In this content, Turkey’s position in the world economy and foreign trade with BRIC countries are becoming increasingly important. In this study, the trade volume between Turkey and BRIC countries was analyzed using panel gravity model and unlike other studies Trade Dependency Index, Import Penetration Index and Export Propensity Index is included to find out how these indices affect the Turkey’s trade with the BRIC countries.

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