TRADE FLOWS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND OTHER BLACK SEA ECONOMIC COOPERATION COUNTRIES: A GRAVITY MODEL ANALYSIS

Bu çalışma Çekim Modelini Rusya ile Karadeniz İşbirliği Örgütü (KEİ) ülkeleri arasındaki ihracat ve ithalat akımlarına uygulamaktadır. Ticaret akımları yalnızca makroekonomik değişkenlerden etkilenmediğinden, temel Çekim Modeli kolonyal geçmiş ve nüfus değişkenleri kullanılarak genişletilmiştir. Bu çalışmada analiz edilen dönem 1997-2015 dönemidir. Birçok model seçim ölçütü kullanılmış ve Uygulanabilir Genelleştirilmiş En Küçük Kareler (UGEK) ve PanelDüzeltilmiş Standart Hata (PDSH) modellerinin uygun modeller olduğu görülmüştür. Bulgular ticaret ortağı ülkelerin GSYH'si, Rusya'nın GSYH'si, kolonyal geçmiş, ticaret ortağı ülkelerin nüfusu ve coğrafi uzaklık değişkenlerinin Rusya'nın hem ihracatında, hem de ithalatında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkilerinin olduğunu göstermektedir

RUSYA İLE DİĞER KARADENİZ EKONOMİK İŞBİRLİĞİ ÜLKELERİ ARASINDAKİ TİCARET AKIMLARININ ÇEKİM MODELİ İLE ANALİZİ

This paper applies the Gravity Model of international trade to the import and export flows between Russia and Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) countries. Since trade flows are not only related with the macro-economic variables, the basic Gravity Model is augmented using colonial link and population variables. The period analyzed in this paper is 1997-2015. Several model selection tests are used then it is concluded that the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) and Panel-Corrected Standard Errors(PCSE) models are suitable. The results of the analyses show that GDP of trading partners, GDP of Russia, colonial link, population of the trading partner countries and geographical distance have a statistically significant impact on Russia’s both imports and exports

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