MERKEZ BANKASI PARASAL BÜYÜKLÜKLERİNİN PARASAL KRİZLERİ AÇIKLAMADAKİ ETKİNLİĞİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Özellikle 1980’li yıllarda küreselleşmenin etkisiyle artan sermaye hareketleri 1990’lı yıllarda dünya genelindebirçok finansal krizin yaşanmasına neden olmuştur. Aniden ortaya çıkan ve ülke ekonomilerine ağır maliyetleryükleyen finansal krizlerin anlaşılabilmesi, etkilerinin hafifletilmesi ve önlenebilmesi için birçok teorik veampirik çalışma yapılmıştır. Literatürde konu ile ilgili yapılan çalışmalar finansal krizlerin para, bankacılık,döviz ve borç krizleri olarak sınıflandırırken genellikle parasal nitelikli olduklarını belirtmektedirler.Bu çalışmada para politikasının etkilerinin izlenebildiği merkez bankası analitik bilançosundan elde edilenparasal büyüklüklerin krizleri açıklamadaki etkinliği, kontrol değişkenler ile birlikte seçilmiş beş ülke içinincelenmeye alınmıştır. Panel regresyon analiz yönteminin kullanıldığı çalışmada, parasal krizlerinaçıklanmasında etkin bir endeks olan döviz piyasası baskı indeksi bağımlı değişken olarak kullanılmıştır. M1 veM2 parasal büyüklüklerinin krizleri açıklamada etkin rol oynadığı anlaşılmıştır. Piyasa faiz oranı değişkenin isekrizleri açıklamada kısmen etkin olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

CENTRAL BANK MONETARY AGGREGATES’ EFFECTIVENES ON EXPLAINING THE MONETARY CRISIS: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Global economy has faced with many financial crises in 1990s because of the financial capital movement in 1980s as a result of globalization. The economists tried to explain this sudden and destructive financial crisis which occurred in many different countries. They focused on theoretical and empirical researches to answer a very simple question “why did they happened in the first place and how did they expend very quickly?” The literature identified the crisis as monetary basses and usually classified them in different categories like monetary, banking, exchange rate and debt crisis. In this research, central banks’ monetary policies effects, include balance sheets, monitored by monetary aggregates that explains the financial crisis overall with help of using selected five countries control variables includes some macro-economic data. In order to explain monetary crisis, the exchange rate market stress index is selected as dependent variable and panel data analysis preferred and used. M1 and M2 monetary aggregates play an effective role to explain crisis. And finally the research reached the conclusion that market interest rate variable could be used explain the crisis at some level.

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