Taşıt Kredisi Faiz Oranları, Döviz Kuru ve Petrol Fiyatlarının Otomobil Üretimi Üzerindeki Etkilerinin Granger Nedensellik Testi ile Analizi

Bu çalışmada ADF, PP ve KPSS birim kök testlerinin yanı sıra granger ne- densellik testi kullanılarak 2002-2012 yılları arasında aylık veriler kullanılarak Türkiyedeki otomobil üretimini etkileyen faktörler izah edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Ya- pılan analizler sonucunda tüm serilerin birinci mertebeden durağan oldukları so- nucuna ulaşılmış; birbirleri ile güçlü korelasyona sahip olan petrolün varil fiyatın- dan otomobil üretim miktarına ve taşıt kredisi faiz oranlarına doğru nedensellik görülmüştür. Ayrıca döviz kurunun da taşıt kredisi faiz oranlarının granger nede- ni olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bununla birlikte kısa dönemdeki etkileri göste- ren etki-tepki fonksiyonları ve varyans ayrıştırması vasıtasıyla bu sonuçlar des- teklenmiştir.

Analyzing Effects of Vehicle Interest Rates, Exchange Rate and Oil Prices on Automobile Production with Granger Causality Test

In this study, factors affecting automobile production in Turkey between the years 2002-2012 are tried to explained by using granger causality Test, as well as ADF, PP, KPSS unit root tests. As a result of this research, it is concluded that entire series are first-order stationary. The causality from barrel price of oil to amount of automobile production and vehicle loan interest rates, which have a strong cor- relation with each other, is observed. Furthermore, exchange rate is also conc- luded as granger cause of vehicle loan interest rates. Moreover, the results are supported by the means of impulse-response functions and variance decompo- sition which show the short-term effects.

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