Aynur Yonar, Harun Yonar, Mostafa Abotaleb, Mostafa Abotaleb, Amr Badr, Abdullah Mohammad Ghazi Al Khatib, Kadir Karakaya, Vinti Dhaka

Zaman serisi modelleri ile Hindistan'daki yumurta üretiminin modellenmesi ve tahmin edilmesi

Amaç: Günümüzde Hindistan'da beslenme alışkanlıkları değişmiş ve bu değişim protein tüketim alışkanlıklarını da etkilemiştir. Yumurta ürünlerinin yeme alışkanlıklarının değişmesi bunun bir göstergesidir. Nüfus artış hızı ve buna bağlı olarak yumurta talebindeki artış göz önüne alındığında, ülkelerin proteinli kümes hayvanı ürünleri üretimlerini artırmaları gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada, hem politika yapıcılar hem de tedarikçiler için yumurta tüketim tahmini ile stratejiler geliştirebilecek sonuçlar elde edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Gereç ve Yöntem: Bu çalışmada, Hindistan'daki Yumurta üretimi ele alınmış ve ARIMA, BATS, TBATS ve Holt’un doğrusal eğilimi gibi birkaç zaman serisi modeli ile tahminler yapılmıştır. Yumurta üretimine ilişkin veriler 2015-2019 yılları arasında dikkate alınmıştır. Bulgular: Holt’un Doğrusal Trend Modelinin tahmin için en uygun model olduğu tespit edildi. MAPE değerleri sırasıyla BATS, TBATS, ARIMA (1,2,2) ve Holt’un doğrusal trend modeli tarafından sırasıyla%2.137, %5.378, % 4.681 ve% 1.392 olarak elde edilmiştir. Holt’un doğrusal trend modeline göre, yumurta üretimi Hindistan’da yükseliş eğilimini sürdürüyor. Hindistan'daki Yumurta üretimi 2019-2020 ile 2023-2024 döneminde 111350,3'ten 148696,9'a yükselecektir. Öneri: Bu çalışma, Hayvancılık sektöründeki politika yapıcılara, geleceğe yatırım yapmak için stratejiler oluşturmaları ve anlamaları için yardımcı olmaktadır. Dahası, Hindistan hükümeti tarafından yumurta ihracatı, yumurta tedariki, yumurta talebi ve yumurta fiyatları için stratejik bir plan yapmak bakımından önemlidir.

Modeling and forecasting of egg production in India using time series models

Aim: Eating habits have changed in India and this change has also affected protein consumption habits. The change in eating habits of egg products is an indication of this. Considering the population growth rate and the resulting increase in egg demand, the countries should increase their production of protein poultry products. Aim of the study was to obtain results for both policymakers and suppliers to develop strategies with the forecast of egg consumption. Materials and Methods: In this study, the production of Eggs in India is considered and forecasts are made by the several time series model such as the ARIMA, BATS, TBATS, and Holt’slinear trend. The testing data for the production of the egg is considered from 2015-2019. Results: It is detected that Holt’s Linear Trend Model is the best fit model for forecasting. The MAPE values are obtained as 2.137%, 5.378%, 4.681%, and 1.392% by the best-fitted models BATS, TBATS, ARIMA (1,2,2), and Holt’s Linear Trend respectively. According to Holt’s linear trend Model, the Eggs production continues its upward trend in India. The Eggs production in India would be increased from 111350.3 to 148696.9 during the period 2019-2020 to 2023-2024. Conclusion: This study might help policymakers in the Livestock sector to under standard making strategies for the future to invest in it. Furthermore, it is important to make a strategic plan for eggs export, eggs supply, eggs demand, and eggs prices by the Indian government.

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