Ahmet Cumhur AKIN, Mehmet Saltuk ARIKAN, Burak MAT, Mustafa Agah TEKİNDAL, Mustafa Bahadır ÇEVRİMLİ

Türkiye’de piliç eti ve piliç yemi fiyatlarının kointegrasyon analizi

Amaç: Etlik piliç yetiştiriciliğinde kullanılan girdiler içerisinde yem maliyetinin yüksek oranı piliç eti fiyatının oluşumunda belirleyici olmaktadır. Türkiye’de piliç yemi sanayinde kullanılan hammaddelerin üretiminin iç piyasayı karşılamada yeterli olmaması nedeniyle talep ithalat yoluyla karşılanmaktadır. Bundan dolayı döviz kurlarında meydana gelen değişim nihai ürünün fiyatına da yansımaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı piliç eti ve piliç yemi fiyat serilerine ait değişkenler arasındaki ilişkilerin analiz edilmesidir. Gereç ve Yöntem: Türkiye’de 2006-2018 arası dönemde TL ile Dolar cinsinden piliç eti ve piliç yemi fiyat serilerine ait değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler johansen koentegrasyon analiz tekniği ile belirlenmiştir. Bulgular: Analiz sonuçlarına göre; Türkiye’de etlik piliç yemi ve piliç eti fiyatlarının kısa dönemde eş bütünleşik olduğu, fiyatların birbirini takip ettiği tespit edilmiştir. Bu takibin yem fiyatlarındaki bir değişimin kanatlı eti fiyatlarına TL cinsinde iki dönem (2 ay) sonra, USD cinsinden ise bir dönem (1 ay) sonra etki ettiği belirlenmiştir. Öneri: Sonuç olarak piliç eti fiyatlarının kısa dönemde girdi maliyetleri göz önünde bulundurarak belirlenmesi gerekmektedir. Ancak dolar kurlarında meydana gelen dalgalanmalar girdi fiyatlarını çok kısa bir dönemde etkilediğinden dolayı piliç eti fiyatlarında etkili bir fiyat mekanizması oluşturulamamaktadır.

Cointegration analysis of broiler meat and broiler feed prices in Turkey

Aim: The high share of feed costs among the costs of inputs used in broiler breeding plays a significant role in the formation of broiler meat price. As the production of raw materials used in the broiler feed industry is not sufficient to meet the demand in the domestic market, the demand is met by importation. As such, the fluctuations in the exchange rates are reflected in the price of the final product. The aim of this study is to analyze the relationships between the variables of broiler meat and broiler feed price series.Materials and Methods: In Turkey, the relations between the variables related to the price series of broiler meat and broiler feed in TL and in USD between 2006 and 2018 were determined by johansen cointegration analysis technique.Results: The results of the analysis indicate that the broiler feed and broiler meat prices in Turkey are cointegrated in the short-term and follow each other's pattern. It was found that the change in the prices of feed had an effect on the TRY-denominated prices of poultry meat in two months and USD-denominated prices of poultry meat in onemonth.Conclusion: Consequently, broiler meat prices should be set taking into account the costs of inputs in the short-term. However, since the fluctuations in the USD exchange rate affect the input prices immediately, an effective price mechanism for broiler prices cannot be developed.

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