Türkiye’de Turizm ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Doğrusal Olmayan Nedensellik İlişkisi

Uluslararası turizm ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin yönü ve büyüklüğü politikayapıcıların en çok ilgilendikleri makroekonomik konulardan biridir. Bu çalışmada gelen turistsayısı, turizm gelirleri ve kişi başına düşen GSYH arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi doğrusal olmayanilişkileri de dikkate alarak 1963-2016 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde Türkiye için test edilmiştir.Çalışmada, turist sayısından kişi başına düşen GSYH’ya doğru tek yönlü doğrusal olmayanGranger-nedensellik ilişkisine ilişkin kanıtlara ulaşılmıştır. Bunun yanında, kişi başına düşenGSYH ve turizm gelirleri arasında çift yönlü doğrusal olmayan nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur.

The Nonlinear Causal Relationship Between Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence for Turkey

The direction and magnitude of the relationship between international tourism and economic growth is one of the macroeconomic issues for policy makers. This study investigates the causal relationship between the tourist arrivals, tourism receipts and GDP per capita for Turkey taking into account non-linear relationships for the period of 1963-2016. The results show that there is a nonlinear causal relationship running from tourist arrivals to GDP per capita. Besides, we confirm bidirectional relationship between GDP per capita and tourism receipts in Turkey.

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