İşsizlik, Döviz Kuru ve Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı İlişkisi: Türkiye için Analizi

Birçok çalışmada, ekonomilerin daha dışa açık hale gelmesiyle birlikte, döviz kurlarındaki dalgalanmalar ekonomilerin reel kısmını etkileyen önemli bir faktör olarak dikkate alınmaktadır. Çalışmaların çoğunluğu ticaret etkisi üzerine odaklanmıştır. Fakat, döviz kurlarındaki hareketler çeşitli kanallardan işsizliği de etkileyebilmektedir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye için 2005-2019 yılları arasında 3 aylık veri kullanarak, döviz kuru ve oynaklığının işsizlik üzerine etkisini analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Olası içsellik sorununun çözümü için VAR analizi uygulanmıştır. Sonuçlar, döviz kurundaki dalgalanmaların işsizlik üzerine belirgin bir etkisinin bulunmamasına rağmen, döviz kuru oynaklığının işsizliği istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir şekilde arttırdığını göstermektedir. Bu açıdan, döviz kuru oynaklığının azaltılması ya da işsizlik üzerindeki etkisinin azaltılması ya da her ikisin de aynı anda gerçekleşmesini sağlayabilecek çeşitli politika araçlarının kullanılması çalışmanın önerileri arasında yer almaktadır.

Unemployment, Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Volatility Relation: Analysis for Turkey

In previous studies, exchange rate fluctuations have been an important factor affecting real sectorof economies as economies have become more open. Most studies have focused on its tradeimpact. However, through different channels, exchange rate movements can also influenceunemployment. This study aims to analyze the effect of exchange rate and its volatility onunemployment for Turkey over the period from 2005 to 2019 by using quarterly data. As asolution for possible endogeneity problem, VAR analysis was performed. Results show thatalthough exchange rate fluctuations do not affect unemployment, exchange rate volatilitysignificantly increases unemployment. Therefore, different policy measures should be employed toreduce exchange rate volatility or its effect on unemployment or both.

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