Türkiye’de Sektörel Kredi Talebinin Dinamikleri

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de banka dışı özel sektöre ilişkin alt sektörlerin kredi talebini, kredi eğilim anketi ve literatürdeki ampirik çalışmalarda yer alan talep yanlı değişkenlerin yanında, bağımlı ekonomi modelinden hareketle, üretim faktörlerinin sektörler arası dağılımı çerçevesinde göreli fiyatla ilişkilendirerek yapısal ve bütüncül bir yaklaşımla ele almaktır. Ayrıca, sektörler ticarete konu olan ve olmayan olarak sınıflandırılarak, kredi talebini etkileyen faktörlerin etkisi karşılaştırılmaktadır. Çalışma, kredi talebini alt sektörlerle ele alması, ticarete konu olan ve ticarete konu olmayan sektörler ayrımında bir analiz sunması ve göreli fiyatla kredi talebini açıklaması bakımından literatürde ilk olma özelliği göstermektedir. Türkiye’de 2005-2016 dönemde göreli fiyatın belirgin şekilde ticarete konu olmayan sektörleri desteklemesi, bu sektörlerin kredi, üretim ve istihdam içindeki payını artırmıştır. Diğer taraftan, bu gelişme büyüme performansının azalmasında, büyüme oynaklığı, cari açık ve ekonominin borçluluk seviyesinin artmasında ve sürdürülemez bir ekonomik yapının ortaya çıkmasında tetikleyici olmuştur. Çalışmada kredi talebi, Panel Düzeltilmiş Standart Hatalar (PCSE) kullanılarak, panel veri analizi ile 2005:12-2018:12 dönemi için tahmin edilmiştir. Ayrıca sonuçların tutarlılığı Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Metodu (GMM) yöntemiyle sınanmıştır. Panel veri analizi sonuçlarına göre; göreli fiyat, vade etkisi, ciro endeksi sektörel kredi talebini pozitif etkilerken; kredi kartı harcamaları, tahsili gecikmiş alacaklar, 2008 küresel krizi ve kredi maliyeti negatif etkilemektedir. Ayrıca, göreli fiyat ve kredi maliyeti, ticarete konu olmayan sektörlerde daha yüksek bir etkiye sahiptir.

Dynamics of Sectoral Credit Demand in Turkey

The aim of this study is to examine the dynamics of sectoral credit demand for subsectors of non-bank corporate sector in Turkey with a holistic and structural approach, within the framework of dependent economy model by associating credit demand with resource allocation and relative prices beside to demand-side variables obtained from credit tendency survey and former empirical studies. In addition, credit demand is examined in the distinction of tradable and non-tradable sector to analyze the impacts of variables. The study is the first in terms of addressing the credit demand with subsectors, presenting an analysis in the distinction of tradable and non-tradable sectors and explaining the credit demand with relative price. In Turkey in the period 2005-2016, relative price significantly supported non-tradable sectors and relative price advantage of non-tradable sectors has increased the share of this sectors in credit, production and employment. On the other hand, these developments have triggered decline in growth performance, increase in growth volatility, current account deficit and the indebtedness level of the economy and in turn emerging of an unsustainable economic structure. In the study, credit demand has been estimated for the period 2005:12-2018:12 by panel data analysis using Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE). In addition, the robustness of the results has been tested by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method. According to panel data analysis results; relative prices, maturity effect and turnover index affect sectoral credit demand positively, while credit card spending, non-performing loans, 2008 global crisis, credit cost affect negatively. Also, relative prices and credit cost have a higher impact on non-tradable sectors.

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