Post-Keynesyen Paranın İçselliği Yaklaşımında Faiz Oranı Nedenselliği: Türkiye Örneği

Bu çalışmada, 2013-2019 dönemi için Türkiye’de T.C.M.B. faiz oranı/T.C.M.B faiz beklentisi ile banka kredi faiz oranı/5 yıllık devlet tahvil faiz oranı arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin post keynesyen paranın içselliğinin iki yaklaşımından hangisini desteklediği araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada, yöntem olarak Johansen eşbütünleşme, vektör hata düzeltme modeli ve Granger nedensellik kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın ilk bulgusu, kısa dönemde T.C.M.B. faiz oranı/T.C.M.B faiz beklentisinden banka kredi faiz oranına doğru tek yönlü nedenselliğin var olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu bulgu, paranın tam içselliği yaklaşımını desteklemektedir. İkinci bulgu, kısa dönmede 5 yıllık devlet tahvil faiz oranından T.C.M.B. faiz oranına doğru tek yönlü nedenselliğin varlığını ileri sürmektedir. Diğer bir bulgu ise, uzun dönemde 5 yıllık devlet tahvil faiz oranı ile T.C.M.B. faiz oranı arasında çift yönlü, karşılıklı bir nedenselliğin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Bu iki bulgu ise, paranın yapısal içselliğini desteklemektedir. Sonuç olarak tüm bulgular, Post-Keynesyen paranın içselliği yaklaşımıyla uyumludur.Bu çalışmada, 2013-2019 dönemi için Türkiye’de T.C.M.B. faiz oranı/T.C.M.B faiz beklentisi ile banka kredi faiz oranı/5 yıllık devlet tahvil faiz oranı arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin post keynesyen paranın içselliğinin iki yaklaşımından hangisini desteklediği araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada, yöntem olarak Johansen eşbütünleşme, vektör hata düzeltme modeli ve Granger nedensellik kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın ilk bulgusu, kısa dönemde T.C.M.B. faiz oranı/T.C.M.B faiz beklentisinden banka kredi faiz oranına doğru tek yönlü nedenselliğin var olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu bulgu, paranın tam içselliği yaklaşımını desteklemektedir. İkinci bulgu, kısa dönmede 5 yıllık devlet tahvil faiz oranından T.C.M.B. faiz oranına doğru tek yönlü nedenselliğin varlığını ileri sürmektedir. Diğer bir bulgu ise, uzun dönemde 5 yıllık devlet tahvil faiz oranı ile T.C.M.B. faiz oranı arasında çift yönlü, karşılıklı bir nedenselliğin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Bu iki bulgu ise, paranın yapısal içselliğini desteklemektedir. Sonuç olarak tüm bulgular, Post-Keynesyen paranın içselliği yaklaşımıyla uyumludur.

Interest-rate Causality in The Post-Keynesian Endogenous Money Theory: Case of Turkey

This paper examines the two approaches of Post-Keynesian endogenous money in terms of causality between the CBRT interest rate/the CBRT future rate and banka loan rate/the Turkey 5Y Treasury bond rate in Turkey over the period 2013-2019. The paper employs a Johansen cointegration technique, vector error-correction modeling, and Granger causality. First, empirical evidence in this paper indicates unidirectional causalities from CBRT interest rate/CBRT future rate to bank loan rate in the short run. This empirical evidence supports the Horizontalist approach. Second, empirical evidence of the paper indicates unidirectional causalities from the Turkey 5Y Treasury bond rate to the CBRT interest rate in short run. But, the other empirical evidence in this paper shows bidirectional causalities between the Turkey 5Y Treasury bond rate and the CBRT interest rate in long run. Such findings are supportive of the Structuralists approach. The empirical findings are consistent with Post-Keynesian endogenous money

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