MALİ SENKRONİZASYON HİPOTEZİ TÜRKİYE İÇİN GEÇERLİ Mİ?

2006 yılında destekli bütçe tanımından merkezi yöntemi bütçe tanımına geçilmesinin ardından kamu maliyesinde gelir ve harcama kalemleri arasında eşanlılık görülmeye başlamıştır. Bu çalışmada 2006:1-2016:1 döneminde aylık veri seti kullanarak Türkiye için Mali Senkronizasyon Hipotezinin geçerliliği Pesaran, Shin ve Smith (2001) tarafından önerilen ARDL sınır ve TodaYamamoto nedensellik testleriyle araştırılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen ampirik bulgulara göre, ARDL sınır testi sonucunda kamu geliriyle, kamu harcaması arasında eşbütünleşik bir ilişki olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Diğer taraftan, TodaYamamoto nedensellik testi sonucunda değişkenler arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu görülmüştür. Buna göre, Türkiye için incelenen dönemde mali senkronizasyon hipotezinin geçerli olduğu söylenebilmektedir

IS FISCAL SYNCHRONISATION HYPOTHESIS VALID FOR TURKEY?

Behind passing from consolidated budget to centralized budget after 2006, there has been seen simultaneity between public revenue and public expenditure. In this study, validity of fiscal synchronization hypothesis has been researched for Turkey for the period 2006:1-2016:1, using ARDL Bound Test suggested by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) and Toda-Yamamoto causality test. According to empirical results obtained from researched, there is no cointegration in the long-run. Conversely, there is a bidirectional relationship between public revenue and public expenditure as regards Toda-Yamamoto causality test. According to this result, fiscal synchronization hypothesis is valid for Turkey for the period is inspected

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